Bohemians 1905 2-2 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Bohemians 1905 take on Sigma Olomouc.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sigma Olomouc make the trip to Dolicek to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 at Dolicek this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Bohemians 1905, 1.50 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Sigma Olomouc in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Bohemians 1905 2W, Sigma Olomouc 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 43% versus Sigma Olomouc 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 45% | Sigma Olomouc 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 0.87 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.799 / defence 0.883 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.707 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.211. Bohemians 1905's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Bohemians 1905 games / 39 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 34% | Draw 39% | Sigma Olomouc 27%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.94 | Draw 2.56 | Sigma Olomouc 3.70. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Sigma Olomouc's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 22% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 30% | Sigma Olomouc 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 34% | Draw 39% | Sigma Olomouc 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 33% | xG Bohemians 1905 0.87 / Sigma Olomouc 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.799 / def 0.883 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.707 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Sigma Olomouc xG
33%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 September 2025 at Dolicek.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Bohemians 1905 2 - 2 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 34% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 27% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (5 meetings): Bohemians 1905 2W | Draws 1 | Sigma Olomouc 2W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.80x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.71x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.98
39%
2.55
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
1.63
0.76
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.98
34%
Home win
2.55
39%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.03
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.7 | 14.9 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.4%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 0.76 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 11D 17L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.31 PPG from 42 outings (15W 10D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.31 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 6W 6D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.05 points per game from 20 outings (5W 6D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.19 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 14W 11D 17L in their last 42 games (1.26 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 15W 10D 17L in their last 42 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.20 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 3-0 on 5 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
5
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 3-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 45%, Sigma Olomouc 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bohemians 1905) and 40% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 35% of games; Sigma Olomouc in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 45% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 40% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc finished level at 2-2 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 0.87 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.76 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.80 / defence 0.88 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.71 / defence 0.81, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 34% | Draw 39% | Sigma Olomouc 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 45%, Sigma Olomouc 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.26 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.