Bohemians 1905 0-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dolicek plays host to Bohemians 1905 versus FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 10 August 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 at Dolicek this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at Dolicek than their overall form suggests.
FK Jablonec have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, FK Jablonec are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Across 7 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 1–0 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
The historical record gives Bohemians 1905 a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 43% versus FK Jablonec 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 49% | FK Jablonec 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.05 xG and FK Jablonec 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.829 / defence 0.965 | FK Jablonec attack 0.948 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.257. Data: 33 Bohemians 1905 games / 33 FK Jablonec games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 32% | FK Jablonec 37%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | FK Jablonec 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Bohemians 1905 dominate the H2H record, yet FK Jablonec are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 40% | FK Jablonec 70%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Aug 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 32% | FK Jablonec 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.05 / FK Jablonec 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.829 / def 0.965 | FK Jablonec attack 0.948 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.15
FK Jablonec xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 August 2025 at Dolicek.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Bohemians 1905 0 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 31% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec?
Record (7 meetings): Bohemians 1905 5W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.83x the league average against FK Jablonec's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.95x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
31%
3.18
32%
3.13
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.20
1.15
FK Jablonec xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
13%
7.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.15 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 37 games, going 11W 10D 16L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.76 PPG from 37 outings (19W 8D 10L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FK Jablonec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 6W 6D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 1.47 points per game from 19 outings (8W 4D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.68 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
FK Jablonec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 11W 10D 16L in their last 37 games (1.16 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 19W 8D 10L in their last 37 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or FK Jablonec away?
FK Jablonec's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.26 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 0-3 on 31 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
3
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, FK Jablonec have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when Bohemians 1905 1-1 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 53%, FK Jablonec 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Bohemians 1905) and 47% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 32%; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 32% of games; FK Jablonec in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 47% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 47% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Bohemians 1905 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Bohemians 1905 0-1 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.05 xG and FK Jablonec 1.15 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.83 / defence 0.96 against FK Jablonec attack 0.95 / defence 0.91, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 32% | FK Jablonec 37%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 49%, FK Jablonec 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.