Yunnan Yukun 3-2 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Shandong Luneng travel to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium to take on Yunnan Yukun. The game is scheduled for Monday 5 May 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shandong Luneng stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.67 xG and Shandong Luneng 2.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.780 / defence 1.070 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.514 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.423. Yunnan Yukun's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shandong Luneng bring a strong defensive rating of 1.255 — this is suppressing Yunnan Yukun's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shandong Luneng have an above-average attack strength of 1.514 — the away xG of 2.31 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Yunnan Yukun games / 40 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 27% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 52%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 3.70 | Draw 4.76 | Shandong Luneng 1.92. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 2.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.97 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 5 May 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 27% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 74% | xG Yunnan Yukun 1.67 / Shandong Luneng 2.31 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.780 / def 1.070 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.514 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.423 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
2.31
Shandong Luneng xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 5 May 2025 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng?
Yunnan Yukun 3 - 2 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 27% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 52% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Shandong Luneng?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Shandong Luneng in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Shandong Luneng away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Yunnan Yukun's attack at 0.78x the league average against Shandong Luneng's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Yunnan Yukun's defence, projects 2.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
27%
3.67
21%
4.76
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
3.97
2.31
Shandong Luneng xG
3.67
27%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.79
Clean Sheet
10%
10.03
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
3%
36.80
10%
10.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 2.31 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 3.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Pre-Season
Shandong Luneng
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Mar 2026, when Yunnan Yukun won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Yunnan Yukun's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Yunnan Yukun
1
Draws
1
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Shandong Luneng?
From 4 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 2, Shandong Luneng have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when Shandong Luneng 4-3 Yunnan Yukun.
Who has won more matches between Yunnan Yukun and Shandong Luneng?
Yunnan Yukun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Yunnan Yukun defy the odds to beat Shandong Luneng 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun beat Shandong Luneng 3-2 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.67 xG and Shandong Luneng 2.31 xG, a combined 3.97. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Yunnan Yukun beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 0.78 / defence 1.07 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.51 / defence 1.25, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 27% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 52%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Yunnan Yukun win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.