Shandong Luneng 1-1 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shandong Luneng host Qingdao Jonoon at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 1 May 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shandong Luneng have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Shandong Luneng at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shandong Luneng at 1.40 PPG versus Qingdao Jonoon's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Shandong Luneng hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Qingdao Jonoon, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jul 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Shandong Luneng a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Shandong Luneng trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 53% versus Qingdao Jonoon 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 55% | Qingdao Jonoon 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.00 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.011 / defence 0.888 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.735 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.441. Data: 39 Shandong Luneng games / 39 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 61% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Jonoon 16%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Qingdao Jonoon 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Shandong Luneng 50% | Qingdao Jonoon 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 1 May 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 61% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Jonoon 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG Shandong Luneng 2.00 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.011 / def 0.888 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.735 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Qingdao Jonoon xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:35 on Thursday 1 May 2025 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Shandong Luneng 1 - 1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 61% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (4 meetings): Shandong Luneng 3W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Jonoon 0W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shandong Luneng's attack at 1.01x the league average against Qingdao Jonoon's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.36
16%
6.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.94
0.94
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
6.26
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
13%
7.42
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
2%
46.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.94 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shandong Luneng's recent record stands at 29W 19D 12L from 60 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Qingdao Jonoon, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 33L across 60 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shandong Luneng have managed 20W 6D 4L from 30 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record stands at 2W 6D 22L across 30 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shandong Luneng are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.03 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 29W 19D 12L in their last 60 games (1.77 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 15W 12D 33L in their last 60 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.20 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Qingdao Jonoon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Qingdao Jonoon in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Shandong Luneng
3
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 8 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 4, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Shandong Luneng 3-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 53%, Qingdao Jonoon 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Shandong Luneng) and 37% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Qingdao Jonoon in 63%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Qingdao Jonoon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 33% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Shandong Luneng's recent games and 37% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.00 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.94 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Shandong Luneng fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.01 / defence 0.89 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.73 / defence 1.14, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 61% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Jonoon 16%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 55%, Qingdao Jonoon 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.