Shandong Luneng 4-0 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Shandong Luneng (94%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shandong Luneng face Hebei Zhongji.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Shandong Luneng welcome Hebei Zhongji to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 09:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shandong Luneng have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng's home record at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Super League appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Hebei Zhongji — All Games: 0W 0D 10L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 3.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Hebei Zhongji have posted 0W 0D 10L from 10 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Shandong Luneng have the edge — a 2.30 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Shandong Luneng: 3 wins from 3 previous clashes against 0 for Hebei Zhongji, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2022, ended 7–0 with Shandong Luneng winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shandong Luneng and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Shandong Luneng trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Hebei Zhongji trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 50% versus Hebei Zhongji 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 56% | Hebei Zhongji 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 4.09 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.549 / defence 0.646 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.538 / defence 1.807. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.324. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack strength of 1.549 — their λ of 4.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hebei Zhongji bring a strong defensive rating of 1.807 — this is suppressing Shandong Luneng's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shandong Luneng's defence rating of 0.646 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Shandong Luneng games / 38 Hebei Zhongji games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 94% | Draw 4% | Hebei Zhongji 1%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.06 | Draw 25.00 | Hebei Zhongji 100.00. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (94%) — a 93pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 4.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 94% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.55 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 83% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 40% | Hebei Zhongji 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 94% | Draw 4% | Hebei Zhongji 1% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% | BTTS 36% | xG Shandong Luneng 4.09 / Hebei Zhongji 0.46 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.549 / def 0.646 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.538 / def 1.807 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (94%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
4.09
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.46
Hebei Zhongji xG
36%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 09:30 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji?
Shandong Luneng 4 - 0 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 94% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 1% chance, and a 4% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji?
Record (3 meetings): Shandong Luneng 3W | Draws 0 | Hebei Zhongji 0W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 3.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shandong Luneng's attack rating (1.55) and Hebei Zhongji's defence rating (1.81), the model arrives at 4.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hebei Zhongji's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 0.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 4-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 3-0 (12.1%), 5-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
94%
1.06
4%
22.62
1%
81.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
4 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
12.0%
Home win
5 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
4.09
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
4.55
0.46
Hebei Zhongji xG
1.06
94%
Home win
22.62
4%
Draw
81.30
1%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
67%
Over 3.5
1.49
33%
Under 3.5
3.03
48%
Over 4.5
2.08
52%
Under 4.5
1.92
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
63%
1.58
2%
59.74
Win to Nil
60%
1.68
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 3 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 12.3 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 4-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 4.09 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.46 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 4.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 94%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 46 games, going 34W 8D 4L for 2.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hebei Zhongji sit at 0.61 PPG from 46 outings (7W 7D 32L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.78 PPG clear of Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 19W 3D 0L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Hebei Zhongji have taken 0.14 points per game from 22 outings (0W 3D 19L). That's a step down from their 0.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hebei Zhongji's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.59 scored and 2.30 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 34W 8D 4L in their last 46 games (2.39 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 7W 7D 32L in their last 46 (0.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.73 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 0.14 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Hebei Zhongji been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Hebei Zhongji in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shandong Luneng have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2022, when Shandong Luneng won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Hebei Zhongji specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Shandong Luneng
0
Draws
0
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji?
From 4 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 4, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2022, when Shandong Luneng 4-0 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 46%, Hebei Zhongji 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Shandong Luneng) and 64% (Hebei Zhongji). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Hebei Zhongji in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Hebei Zhongji?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 41% of Hebei Zhongji's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Hebei Zhongji usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 64% of Hebei Zhongji's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Hebei Zhongji tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Hebei Zhongji in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Hebei Zhongji 4-0 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 4.09 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.46 xG, a combined 4.55. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.55 / defence 0.65 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.54 / defence 1.81, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 94% | Draw 4% | Hebei Zhongji 1%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 94%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 67% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 56%, Hebei Zhongji 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 0.61. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.23 average — above their attacking norm. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.