Dalian Aerbin 1-1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dalian Aerbin host Guangzhou Evergrande FC at Dalian Sports Center in Super League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022 at 07:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Dalian Aerbin have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin at Dalian Sports Center this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guangzhou Evergrande FC stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Super League matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Dalian Aerbin have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dalian Aerbin, 0 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Dalian Aerbin in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 50% versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 50% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 2.04 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.056 / defence 0.983 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.592 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.343. Guangzhou Evergrande FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Dalian Aerbin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Dalian Aerbin games / 38 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 66% | Draw 21% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 13%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 1.52 | Draw 4.76 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Dalian Aerbin (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dalian Aerbin are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dalian Aerbin 70% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Dalian Sports Center • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 66% | Draw 21% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 48% | xG Dalian Aerbin 2.04 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.056 / def 0.983 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.592 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
48%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 07:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Dalian Sports Center.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Dalian Aerbin 1 - 1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Sports Center.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 66% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Record (1 meetings): Dalian Aerbin 0W | Draws 1 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0W.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dalian Aerbin's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
66%
1.51
21%
4.79
13%
7.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.82
0.78
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
7.73
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
13%
7.66
Win to Nil
30%
3.30
2%
59.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 0.78 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Dalian Aerbin have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 14W 9D 23L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's form line: 16W 9D 21L from 46 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dalian Aerbin on 1.11 PPG, Guangzhou Evergrande FC on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dalian Aerbin have posted 1.26 PPG from 23 outings (8W 5D 10L).
On the road, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 6W 3D 14L from 23 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou Evergrande FC are on 1.39 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 14W 9D 23L in their last 46 games (1.11 PPG), while Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 16W 9D 21L in their last 46 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Guangzhou Evergrande FC away?
Dalian Aerbin's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.26 PPG; Guangzhou Evergrande FC away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Dalian Aerbin or Guangzhou Evergrande FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dalian Aerbin and Guangzhou Evergrande FC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dalian Aerbin
2
Draws
0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 November 2022, when Dalian Aerbin 1-1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 56%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Dalian Aerbin) and 48% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC).
On the defensive side: Dalian Aerbin have failed to score in 26% of games; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 35% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 48% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Guangzhou Evergrande FC tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dalian Aerbin and Guangzhou Evergrande FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin and Guangzhou Evergrande FC finished level at 1-1 at Dalian Sports Center, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 2.04 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.78 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Dalian Aerbin fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 1.06 / defence 0.98 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.59 / defence 1.31, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 66% | Draw 21% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 13%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 50%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Aerbin 1.11 PPG, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.