Qingdao Youth Island 2-2 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center plays host to Qingdao Youth Island versus Tianjin Teda in Super League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Qingdao Youth Island (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tianjin Teda have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Qingdao Youth Island against 1.80 for Tianjin Teda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Qingdao Youth Island register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Tianjin Teda in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Qingdao Youth Island lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2024, ended 1–2 with Tianjin Teda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Qingdao Youth Island goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Qingdao Youth Island 63% and Tianjin Teda 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 60% | Tianjin Teda 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 2.02 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.197 / defence 1.043 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.027 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.551. Data: 34 Qingdao Youth Island games / 34 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 45% | Draw 24% | Tianjin Teda 31%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Tianjin Teda 3.23. Qingdao Youth Island hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Youth Island 80% | Tianjin Teda 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 45% | Draw 24% | Tianjin Teda 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 72% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 2.02 / Tianjin Teda 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.197 / def 1.043 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.027 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.551 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Tianjin Teda xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda?
Qingdao Youth Island 2 - 2 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 45% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Tianjin Teda?
Record (2 meetings): Qingdao Youth Island 0W | Draws 0 | Tianjin Teda 2W.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Tianjin Teda in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Qingdao Youth Island's attack rating (1.20) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (1.03x) against Qingdao Youth Island's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
45%
2.22
24%
4.13
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
3.68
1.66
Tianjin Teda xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.53
Clean Sheet
19%
5.27
13%
7.52
Win to Nil
9%
11.72
4%
24.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.66 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Qingdao Youth Island's recent record stands at 8W 8D 14L from 30 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 12W 6D 12L across 30 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Qingdao Youth Island against 1.40 for Tianjin Teda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Qingdao Youth Island have managed 3W 7D 5L from 15 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 5W 1D 9L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.47 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Tianjin Teda in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Qingdao Youth Island have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 games (1.07 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 12W 6D 12L in their last 30 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Youth Island at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Qingdao Youth Island's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Youth Island at home: 1.07 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Qingdao Youth Island
4
Draws
2
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Tianjin Teda?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, Tianjin Teda have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Qingdao Youth Island, 73% for Tianjin Teda — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Qingdao Youth Island and 80% for Tianjin Teda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Youth Island have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Youth Island play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Qingdao Youth Island's games and 73% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Youth Island vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Qingdao Youth Island's matches and 80% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do Qingdao Youth Island and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Qingdao Youth Island have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Youth Island and Tianjin Teda share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island and Tianjin Teda finished level at 2-2 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 2.02 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.66 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.20 / defence 1.04 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.03 / defence 1.04, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 45% | Draw 24% | Tianjin Teda 31%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 60%, Tianjin Teda 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Youth Island 1.07 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.