Qingdao Jonoon 1-1 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 43%, yet in-form Chengdu Better City provide a compelling counter-argument — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Qingdao Jonoon welcome Chengdu Better City to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 July 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chengdu Better City stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chengdu Better City's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Chengdu Better City's 2.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Qingdao Jonoon's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Qingdao Jonoon register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Chengdu Better City in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Chengdu Better City have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Qingdao Jonoon.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Chengdu Better City winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Chengdu Better City have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Chengdu Better City in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 56% versus Chengdu Better City 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Chengdu Better City 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.78 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.161 / defence 0.978 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.163 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.360. Data: 46 Qingdao Jonoon games / 46 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Draw 23% | Chengdu Better City 34%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Chengdu Better City 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Jonoon at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Chengdu Better City (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 60% | Chengdu Better City 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Draw 23% | Chengdu Better City 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.78 / Chengdu Better City 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.161 / def 0.978 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.163 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Chengdu Better City xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 5 July 2026 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Qingdao Jonoon 1 - 1 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 43% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City?
Record (7 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 1W | Draws 1 | Chengdu Better City 5W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating (1.16) and Chengdu Better City's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
43%
2.30
23%
4.39
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
3.33
1.55
Chengdu Better City xG
2.30
43%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
9%
10.81
6%
17.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.55 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 11W 12D 23L from 46 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chengdu Better City, meanwhile, have gone 30W 10D 6L across 46 games — 2.17 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chengdu Better City by 1.19 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 9W 7D 7L from 23 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Chengdu Better City's away record stands at 13W 7D 3L across 23 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 2.09 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Chengdu Better City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 11W 12D 23L in their last 46 games (0.98 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 30W 10D 6L in their last 46 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.48 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Qingdao Jonoon or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Jonoon have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jun 2024, when Chengdu Better City won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
2
Draws
5
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City?
From 8 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Chengdu Better City have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 1-1 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 56%, Chengdu Better City 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 65% (Chengdu Better City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Chengdu Better City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Qingdao Jonoon's games and 70% of Chengdu Better City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Qingdao Jonoon's matches and 65% of Chengdu Better City's.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.78 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.55 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.16 / defence 0.98 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.16 / defence 0.90, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Draw 23% | Chengdu Better City 34%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 50%, Chengdu Better City 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.