Qingdao Huanghai 0-6 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Qingdao Huanghai take on Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Guangzhou Evergrande FC travel to Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium to take on Qingdao Huanghai. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 21 July 2021, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Huanghai have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 outings — a 1.17 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Qingdao Huanghai have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Qingdao Huanghai's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 1L across 3 games at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.17 — Qingdao Huanghai are significantly better at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC — All Games: 3W 2D 1L from 6 Super League fixtures this season — 1.83 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 0.83. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Guangzhou Evergrande FC have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's away record: 1W 1D 1L from 3 road trips in Super League this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 1.83 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Guangzhou Evergrande FC are 0.66 PPG ahead (1.83 vs 1.17), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Qingdao Huanghai in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Qingdao Huanghai 17% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 50%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Qingdao Huanghai 17% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Huanghai 0.92 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.913 / defence 1.083 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.885 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 0.939 / away 0.995. Data: 6 Qingdao Huanghai games / 6 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 29% | Draw 40% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Huanghai 3.45 | Draw 2.50 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3.23. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Huanghai 33% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Jul 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 29% | Draw 40% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 41% | xG Qingdao Huanghai 0.92 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.913 / def 1.083 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.885 / def 1.071 | league avg home 0.939 / away 0.995 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 21 July 2021 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Qingdao Huanghai 0 - 6 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Huanghai a 29% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 31% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Qingdao Huanghai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Huanghai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Huanghai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
Qingdao Huanghai (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.83 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Qingdao Huanghai's attack at 0.91x the league average against Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack versus Qingdao Huanghai's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.45
40%
2.49
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Total xG
1.87
0.95
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
3.45
29%
Home win
2.49
40%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
11%
8.95
12%
8.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 14.7 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Qingdao Huanghai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Qingdao Huanghai and 0.95 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Qingdao Huanghai's recent record stands at 2W 1D 3L from 6 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Qingdao Huanghai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 1L across 6 games — 1.83 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Guangzhou Evergrande FC by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Huanghai heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Qingdao Huanghai have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Qingdao Huanghai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Huanghai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Qingdao Huanghai are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou Evergrande FC are on 1.67 scored and 0.83 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Huanghai have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Huanghai
Early Season
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Huanghai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in coming into this match?
Qingdao Huanghai have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Huanghai at home or Guangzhou Evergrande FC away?
Qingdao Huanghai's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Huanghai at home: 2.00 PPG; Guangzhou Evergrande FC away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Qingdao Huanghai or Guangzhou Evergrande FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Huanghai have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Qingdao Huanghai
0
Draws
2
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Huanghai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Qingdao Huanghai have won 0, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Huanghai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 August 2021, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC 5-0 Qingdao Huanghai.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Huanghai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Qingdao Huanghai see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Qingdao Huanghai 33% BTTS, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Qingdao Huanghai and 0% for Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Huanghai keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 33%; Qingdao Huanghai have failed to score in 33% of games; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Huanghai home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Huanghai play Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Qingdao Huanghai's recent matches and 33% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Qingdao Huanghai's recent games and 0% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Huanghai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC tend to score early?
Qingdao Huanghai have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guangzhou Evergrande FC run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Qingdao Huanghai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Qingdao Huanghai 0-6 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Huanghai 0.92 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.95 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. Qingdao Huanghai fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Guangzhou Evergrande FC outscored their 0.95 projection by 5.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.91 / defence 1.08 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.07, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Huanghai 29% | Draw 40% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Guangzhou Evergrande FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Huanghai 17%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Huanghai's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Guangzhou Evergrande FC arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Qingdao Huanghai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.