Meizhou Kejia 3-2 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Henan Jianye travel to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium to take on Meizhou Kejia. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 8 November 2022, 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Meizhou Kejia — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Meizhou Kejia's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Meizhou Kejia are significantly better at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Henan Jianye have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Meizhou Kejia at 1.10 PPG versus Henan Jianye's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Meizhou Kejia, 0 for Henan Jianye and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Meizhou Kejia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Meizhou Kejia in-play tendencies (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 52% versus Henan Jianye 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 52% | Henan Jianye 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.29 xG and Henan Jianye 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.153 / defence 0.991 | Henan Jianye attack 0.881 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.304. Henan Jianye's defence strength of 0.760 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 23 Meizhou Kejia games / 37 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 39% | Draw 29% | Henan Jianye 32%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Henan Jianye 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Meizhou Kejia are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 70% | Henan Jianye 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 39% | Draw 29% | Henan Jianye 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.29 / Henan Jianye 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.153 / def 0.991 | Henan Jianye attack 0.881 / def 0.760 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Henan Jianye xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 8 November 2022 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye?
Meizhou Kejia 3 - 2 Henan Jianye.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 39% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye?
Record (1 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 1W | Draws 0 | Henan Jianye 0W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Meizhou Kejia's attack rating (1.15) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
39%
2.55
29%
3.49
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.42
1.14
Henan Jianye xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
13%
7.97
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.1 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.14 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Meizhou Kejia come into this having played 23 games, going 9W 7D 7L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.74 PPG from 23 outings (12W 4D 7L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Meizhou Kejia on 1.48 PPG, Henan Jianye on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Meizhou Kejia's home form reads 6W 1D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — Meizhou Kejia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 1.50 points per game from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.65 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 9W 7D 7L in their last 23 games (1.48 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 12W 4D 7L in their last 23 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Henan Jianye away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.90 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Meizhou Kejia or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Meizhou Kejia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 July 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jun 2024, when Henan Jianye won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Meizhou Kejia's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Meizhou Kejia
3
Draws
2
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye?
From 8 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 3, Henan Jianye have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2025, when Henan Jianye 1-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye?
Meizhou Kejia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 70%, Henan Jianye 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Meizhou Kejia) and 30% (Henan Jianye). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 60%; Henan Jianye in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of Meizhou Kejia's recent matches and 20% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 30% of Henan Jianye's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Meizhou Kejia edge out Henan Jianye 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia beat Henan Jianye 3-2 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.29 xG and Henan Jianye 1.14 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Henan Jianye outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.15 / defence 0.99 against Henan Jianye attack 0.88 / defence 0.76, drawn from 23/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 39% | Draw 29% | Henan Jianye 32%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 52%, Henan Jianye 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Meizhou Kejia 1.48 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Meizhou Kejia win broke the near-deadlock. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.