Henan Jianye 3-4 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 40%, yet in-form Tianjin Teda provide a compelling counter-argument — this Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Henan Jianye host Tianjin Teda at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 5 May 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Henan Jianye's home record at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Tianjin Teda — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Tianjin Teda have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 7 encounters against Henan Jianye's 1 victories.
The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Tianjin Teda winning.
It is worth noting that Tianjin Teda have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 52% versus Tianjin Teda 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 43% | Tianjin Teda 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.64 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.012 / defence 1.292 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.826 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.418. Data: 39 Henan Jianye games / 40 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 40% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 34%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Tianjin Teda 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Tianjin Teda (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 40% | Tianjin Teda 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 5 May 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 40% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Henan Jianye 1.64 / Tianjin Teda 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.012 / def 1.292 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.826 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Tianjin Teda xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:00 on Monday 5 May 2025 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Henan Jianye 3 - 4 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 40% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda?
Record (7 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 2 | Tianjin Teda 4W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (1.01) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
40%
2.50
26%
3.91
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
3.15
1.51
Tianjin Teda xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
9%
11.35
7%
14.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.51 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 18W 18D 24L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 23W 21D 16L from 60 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.20 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 1.60 PPG from 30 outings (13W 9D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Henan Jianye are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 11W 6D 13L from 30 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.40 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 18W 18D 24L in their last 60 games (1.20 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 23W 21D 16L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.60 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 19 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
6
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 2, Tianjin Teda have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-2 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 50%, Tianjin Teda 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Henan Jianye) and 57% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Henan Jianye's games and 67% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 57% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tianjin Teda defy the odds to beat Henan Jianye 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Henan Jianye 3-4 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.64 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.51 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tianjin Teda outscored their 1.51 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.01 / defence 1.29 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.83 / defence 0.96, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 40% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 34%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Tianjin Teda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 43%, Tianjin Teda 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.20 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.