Henan Jianye 1-1 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Henan Jianye face Nantong Zhiyun.

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Full Analysis

Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Nantong Zhiyun in Super League (matchday 18). Kick-off: Friday 21 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Henan Jianye have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Henan Jianye's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Nantong Zhiyun's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Nantong Zhiyun's away record over their last 8 away games: 0W 3D 5L (0.38 PPG). Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Henan Jianye, 0.80 for Nantong Zhiyun — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Nantong Zhiyun edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 26 Apr 2023, ended Henan Jianye 0–1 Nantong Zhiyun — a Nantong Zhiyun win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Nantong Zhiyun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 100%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 47% versus Nantong Zhiyun 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Henan Jianye 24% | Nantong Zhiyun 29%). Note also that Nantong Zhiyun surrender HT leads in 100% of cases while Henan Jianye recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.09 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.788 / defence 0.863 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.694 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.204. Henan Jianye's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. Nantong Zhiyun's attack rating of 0.694 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Henan Jianye's last 50 games and Nantong Zhiyun's last 17.

Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 42% | Draw 36% | Nantong Zhiyun 22%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.40 | Draw 2.74 | Nantong Zhiyun 4.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 1.81 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 73% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Henan Jianye's last 10 home games and Nantong Zhiyun's last 8 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Henan Jianye 50% (last 10 home games) | Nantong Zhiyun 62% (last 8 away games).

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