Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng meet at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center in Super League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 July 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Hangzhou Greentown (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Shandong Luneng's overall Super League record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 2 for Shandong Luneng and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Shandong Luneng winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hangzhou Greentown — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Shandong Luneng — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 54% versus Shandong Luneng 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 52% | Shandong Luneng 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.063 / defence 0.912 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.999 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.214. Data: 50 Hangzhou Greentown games / 51 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 39% | Draw 32% | Shandong Luneng 29%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Shandong Luneng 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Hangzhou Greentown 40% | Shandong Luneng 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Huzhou Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 39% | Draw 32% | Shandong Luneng 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 / Shandong Luneng 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.063 / def 0.912 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.999 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Shandong Luneng xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 22 July 2023 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng?
Hangzhou Greentown 2 - 1 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 39% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng?
Record (3 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 1W | Draws 0 | Shandong Luneng 2W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 1.06x the league average against Shandong Luneng's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (1.00x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
39%
2.53
32%
3.13
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.44
1.11
Shandong Luneng xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
8%
13.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.11 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 23W 15D 12L from 50 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 31W 11D 8L across 50 games — 2.08 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hangzhou Greentown heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 14W 4D 6L from 24 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 11W 8D 5L across 24 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.26 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 23W 15D 12L in their last 50 games (1.68 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 31W 11D 8L in their last 50 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.92 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 20 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 3-0 on 25 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Hangzhou Greentown
2
Draws
4
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng?
From 9 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, Shandong Luneng have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 4-1 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 33%, Shandong Luneng 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 54% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Shandong Luneng?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 62% of Shandong Luneng's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 54% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hangzhou Greentown edge out Shandong Luneng 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Shandong Luneng 2-1 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.11 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.06 / defence 0.91 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.00 / defence 0.84, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 39% | Draw 32% | Shandong Luneng 29%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 52%, Shandong Luneng 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.68. Form was overturned, with Hangzhou Greentown winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.