Henan Jianye 1-1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Henan Jianye and Guangzhou Evergrande FC meet at Huadu Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 15 July 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Henan Jianye have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have collected 1.75 PPG across 4 Super League outings this season: 2W 1D 1L. Last five: D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.75. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Guangzhou Evergrande FC have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC arrive in superior form — a 1.25 PPG advantage (1.75 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Henan Jianye half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 75% versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Henan Jianye 50% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 0.89 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.961 / defence 1.180 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.857 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 0.858 / away 1.112. Data: 4 Henan Jianye games / 4 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 26% | Draw 36% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 3.85 | Draw 2.78 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guangzhou Evergrande FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guangzhou Evergrande FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Henan Jianye 75% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Huadu Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Jul 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 26% | Draw 36% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Henan Jianye 0.89 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.961 / def 1.180 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.857 / def 1.076 | league avg home 0.858 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou Evergrande FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 12:30 on Thursday 15 July 2021 at Huadu Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Henan Jianye 1 - 1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Huadu Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 26% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 38% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou Evergrande FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Henan Jianye and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Henan Jianye and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.75 | L5 D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (0.96) and Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack (0.86x) against Henan Jianye's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou Evergrande FC Win
26%
3.86
36%
2.80
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.01
1.12
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
3.86
26%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
8%
11.88
16%
6.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 15.0 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.12 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Henan Jianye's recent record stands at 0W 2D 2L from 4 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Henan Jianye, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 1L across 4 games — 1.75 PPG, with D-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Guangzhou Evergrande FC by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Henan Jianye heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou Evergrande FC are on 1.50 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 25%.
Defensively: Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Early Season
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have Henan Jianye or Guangzhou Evergrande FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guangzhou Evergrande FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
1
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 1, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-1 Henan Jianye.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 75%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Henan Jianye) and 25% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC).
On the defensive side: Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 25% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 25% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Guangzhou Evergrande FC tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye and Guangzhou Evergrande FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye and Guangzhou Evergrande FC finished level at 1-1 at Huadu Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 0.89 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.96 / defence 1.18 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 26% | Draw 36% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 38%, with Guangzhou Evergrande FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 50%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Guangzhou Evergrande FC arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.