Henan Jianye 0-0 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Changchun Yatai in Super League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 07:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Henan Jianye have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Henan Jianye have posted 5W 0D 5L at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Henan Jianye, 1.20 for Changchun Yatai — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Henan Jianye lead 1W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 52% versus Changchun Yatai 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 45% | Changchun Yatai 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.16 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.791 / defence 0.861 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.962 / defence 1.454. League average goals — home 1.882 / away 1.290. Henan Jianye's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 2.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Changchun Yatai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.454 — this is suppressing Henan Jianye's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Henan Jianye games / 58 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 62% | Draw 21% | Changchun Yatai 17%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Changchun Yatai 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 50% | Changchun Yatai 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 62% | Draw 21% | Changchun Yatai 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG Henan Jianye 2.16 / Changchun Yatai 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.791 / def 0.861 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.962 / def 1.454 | league avg home 1.882 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Changchun Yatai xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai?
Henan Jianye 0 - 0 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 62% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai?
Record (5 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 3 | Changchun Yatai 1W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Henan Jianye's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.16. Flip it around — Changchun Yatai's attack (0.96x) against Henan Jianye's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
62%
1.62
21%
4.80
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
3.23
1.07
Changchun Yatai xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
11%
8.71
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
2%
50.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.07 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Henan Jianye come into this having played 58 games, going 18W 16D 24L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 1.19 PPG from 58 outings (18W 15D 25L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Henan Jianye against 1.19 for Changchun Yatai. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Henan Jianye's home form reads 13W 8D 8L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Henan Jianye are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Changchun Yatai have taken 0.86 points per game from 29 outings (6W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.52 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai in 60%.
Last 58 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 18W 16D 24L in their last 58 games (1.21 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 18W 15D 25L in their last 58 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.62 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Henan Jianye go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 6-2 on 11 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
4
Draws
1
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai?
From 8 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 3, Changchun Yatai have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Henan Jianye 2-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 52%, Changchun Yatai 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Henan Jianye) and 59% (Changchun Yatai).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Changchun Yatai in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Changchun Yatai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Henan Jianye's games and 59% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 59% of Changchun Yatai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Henan Jianye's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.16 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.07 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Henan Jianye fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Changchun Yatai landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.79 / defence 0.86 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.96 / defence 1.45, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 62% | Draw 21% | Changchun Yatai 17%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 45%, Changchun Yatai 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.21 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.