Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hangzhou Greentown face Wuhan Three Towns.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown welcome Wuhan Three Towns to Huzhou Olympic Sports Center in Super League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Friday 4 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hangzhou Greentown at home: 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Wuhan Three Towns — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hangzhou Greentown 2.00 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Hangzhou Greentown have won 1, Wuhan Three Towns 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2023, ended Hangzhou Greentown 0–0 Wuhan Three Towns — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Wuhan Three Towns in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 56% versus Wuhan Three Towns 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 54% | Wuhan Three Towns 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hangzhou Greentown surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Wuhan Three Towns have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.41 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.095 / defence 0.910 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.270 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.213. Wuhan Three Towns have an above-average attack rating of 1.270, which lifts their away xG to 1.40. Data: built from Hangzhou Greentown's last 52 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 53.
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 35% | Draw 30% | Wuhan Three Towns 35%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.82 | Draw 3.37 | Wuhan Three Towns 2.87. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Hangzhou Greentown 35% and Wuhan Three Towns 35%, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 home games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hangzhou Greentown 40% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Three Towns 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, matchday 20 | Venue: Huzhou Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Friday 4 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 35% | Draw 30% | Wuhan Three Towns 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.41 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.095 / def 0.910 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.270 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns level at 35% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Wuhan Three Towns xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns FAQs
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Friday 4 August 2023 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Hangzhou Greentown 2 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Super League fixture (matchday 20) (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 35% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 1.09x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hangzhou Greentown's last 52 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
35%
2.82
30%
3.37
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.82
1.40
Wuhan Three Towns xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
9%
11.47
8%
11.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.40 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 25W 15D 12L from 52 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Wuhan Three Towns, meanwhile, have gone 31W 12D 9L across 52 games — 2.02 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hangzhou Greentown on 1.73 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns on 2.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 15W 4D 6L from their last 25 home games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record stands at 16W 5D 4L across their last 25 away games, a 2.12 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 2.23 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown (Home) vs Wuhan Three Towns (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns Form FAQs
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 25W 15D 12L in their last 52 games (1.73 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 31W 12D 9L in their last 52 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Wuhan Three Towns's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.96 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Mar 2025, when Hangzhou Greentown won Wuhan Three Towns 0-4 Hangzhou Greentown.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Hangzhou Greentown
1
Draws
2
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hangzhou Greentown have won 7, Wuhan Three Towns have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Hangzhou Greentown 4-1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 36%, Wuhan Three Towns 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 64% (Wuhan Three Towns). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Wuhan Three Towns in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 60% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 64% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 80% of Wuhan Three Towns's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hangzhou Greentown edge out Wuhan Three Towns 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Wuhan Three Towns 2-1 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.41 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.40 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.09 / defence 0.91 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.27 / defence 0.86, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 35% | Draw 30% | Wuhan Three Towns 35%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 54%, Wuhan Three Towns 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.73 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.