Dalian Aerbin 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shanghai Shenhua (38%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Dalian Aerbin face Shanghai Shenhua.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua make the trip to Dalian Sports Center to face Dalian Aerbin in Super League (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Saturday 5 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Current Form
Dalian Aerbin's record over their last 10 games: 0W 6D 4L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dalian Aerbin's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shanghai Shenhua have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shanghai Shenhua are 1.10 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin over their recent games (1.70 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Shanghai Shenhua, who have 4 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2023, ended Dalian Aerbin 0–1 Shanghai Shenhua — a Shanghai Shenhua win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Shanghai Shenhua have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.6 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Dalian Aerbin — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Shanghai Shenhua — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 60% versus Shanghai Shenhua 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 53% | Shanghai Shenhua 34%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dalian Aerbin surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Shanghai Shenhua have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 54% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 0.79 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.725 / defence 0.912 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.923 / defence 0.706. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.221. Dalian Aerbin's attack rating of 0.725 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Shanghai Shenhua bring a tight defence (rating 0.706, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Dalian Aerbin's projected output down. Data: built from Dalian Aerbin's last 53 games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 53.
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 25% | Draw 37% | Shanghai Shenhua 38%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 4.02 | Draw 2.67 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.66. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.82 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 73% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Dalian Aerbin's last 10 home games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Dalian Aerbin 70% (last 10 home games) | Shanghai Shenhua 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, matchday 20 | Venue: Dalian Sports Center • Kick-off: Saturday 5 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 25% | Draw 37% | Shanghai Shenhua 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Dalian Aerbin 0.79 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.725 / def 0.912 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.923 / def 0.706 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Shanghai Shenhua xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua FAQs
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Dalian Sports Center.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Dalian Aerbin 2 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Sports Center.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Super League fixture (matchday 20) (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 25% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 38% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dalian Aerbin's attack rating (0.72) and Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (0.92x) against Dalian Aerbin's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Dalian Aerbin's last 53 games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
25%
4.02
37%
2.67
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
1.82
1.03
Shanghai Shenhua xG
4.02
25%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
9%
11.24
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 16.7 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.03 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dalian Aerbin come into this having played 53 games, going 14W 18D 21L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Shanghai Shenhua sit at 1.66 PPG from 53 outings (24W 16D 13L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Shanghai Shenhua carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Dalian Aerbin's home form reads 8W 11D 7L across their last 26 home games, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Shanghai Shenhua have taken 1.62 points per game from their last 26 away games (11W 9D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.17 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dalian Aerbin have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Dalian Aerbin (Home) vs Shanghai Shenhua (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua Form FAQs
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 14W 18D 21L in their last 53 games (1.13 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 24W 16D 13L in their last 53 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.35 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Dalian Aerbin or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua, the earliest from July 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 5 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Aerbin have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Dalian Aerbin
0
Draws
4
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Dalian Aerbin have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 August 2023: Dalian Aerbin 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 69%, Shanghai Shenhua 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Dalian Aerbin) and 38% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 54% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 38% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 65% of Shanghai Shenhua's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dalian Aerbin defy the odds to beat Shanghai Shenhua 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin beat Shanghai Shenhua 2-1 at Dalian Sports Center, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 0.79 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.03 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Dalian Aerbin beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.72 / defence 0.91 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.92 / defence 0.71, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 25% | Draw 37% | Shanghai Shenhua 38%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a Dalian Aerbin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 53%, Shanghai Shenhua 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Dalian Aerbin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.