Hangzhou Greentown 6-1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Shijiazhuang Y. J. travel to Huzhou Olympic Sports Center to take on Hangzhou Greentown. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 October 2023, 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hangzhou Greentown — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 7W 2D 1L at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
Hangzhou Greentown are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hangzhou Greentown, 1 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Jul 2023, ended 1–2 with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 54% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 54% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.57 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.121 / defence 0.791 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.776 / defence 1.505. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.194. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.505 — this is suppressing Hangzhou Greentown's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Hangzhou Greentown games / 62 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 77% | Draw 15% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 8%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.30 | Draw 6.67 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (77%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 40% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Huzhou Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 77% | Draw 15% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 48% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 2.57 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.121 / def 0.791 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.776 / def 1.505 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.57
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
48%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Hangzhou Greentown 6 - 1 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 77% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 8% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (3 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 0W | Draws 2 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 1.12x the league average against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 2.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
77%
1.30
15%
6.84
8%
11.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.57
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
3.30
0.73
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
1.30
77%
Home win
6.84
15%
Draw
11.95
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
8%
13.09
Win to Nil
37%
2.70
1%
156.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 2.57 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 0.73 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 31W 18D 12L from 61 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Shijiazhuang Y. J., meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 26L across 61 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hangzhou Greentown by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shijiazhuang Y. J. heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 18W 6D 6L from 30 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s away record stands at 10W 6D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.20 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 31W 18D 12L in their last 61 games (1.82 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 18W 17D 26L in their last 61 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 2.00 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when Hangzhou Greentown won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hangzhou Greentown
3
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 6 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2024, when Hangzhou Greentown 2-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 37%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 63% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 57% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 63% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hangzhou Greentown run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 6-1 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.57 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.73 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.12 / defence 0.79 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.78 / defence 1.50, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 77% | Draw 15% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 8%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 77%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 54%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.