Chengdu Better City 3-1 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wuhan Zall make the trip to Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park to face Chengdu Better City in Super League, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Tuesday 27 December 2022 at 07:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chengdu Better City's overall Super League record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Chengdu Better City at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
Wuhan Zall (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Wuhan Zall away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Chengdu Better City's 2.40 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Wuhan Zall's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Chengdu Better City, 0 for Wuhan Zall and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Chengdu Better City winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Chengdu Better City — key trading statistics (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Wuhan Zall — key trading statistics (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 44% versus Wuhan Zall 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 38% | Wuhan Zall 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 2.35 xG and Wuhan Zall 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.181 / defence 0.695 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.741 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.360. Wuhan Zall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.386 — this is suppressing Chengdu Better City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Chengdu Better City's defence rating of 0.695 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 32 Chengdu Better City games / 46 Wuhan Zall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 74% | Draw 18% | Wuhan Zall 9%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.35 | Draw 5.56 | Wuhan Zall 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (74%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Chengdu Better City 40% | Wuhan Zall 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Dec 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 74% | Draw 18% | Wuhan Zall 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 46% | xG Chengdu Better City 2.35 / Wuhan Zall 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.181 / def 0.695 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.741 / def 1.386 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Wuhan Zall xG
46%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 07:00 on Tuesday 27 December 2022 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall?
Chengdu Better City 3 - 1 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 74% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 9% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Zall will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Zall?
Record (1 meetings): Chengdu Better City 1W | Draws 0 | Wuhan Zall 0W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Zall in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Wuhan Zall (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Chengdu Better City's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Wuhan Zall's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.35. Flip it around — Wuhan Zall's attack (0.74x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 32/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.1%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
74%
1.36
18%
5.70
9%
11.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
3.05
0.70
Wuhan Zall xG
1.36
74%
Home win
5.70
18%
Draw
11.44
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
10%
10.50
Win to Nil
37%
2.73
1%
120.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 0.70 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Chengdu Better City's recent record stands at 17W 12D 5L from 34 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Wuhan Zall, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 22L across 34 games — 0.82 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chengdu Better City by 1.03 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wuhan Zall heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Chengdu Better City have managed 7W 8D 1L from 16 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wuhan Zall's away record stands at 4W 0D 12L across 16 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 1.00 scored and 1.97 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Wuhan Zall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 17W 12D 5L in their last 34 games (1.85 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 8W 4D 22L in their last 34 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Wuhan Zall away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 1.81 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Wuhan Zall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Wuhan Zall in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Chengdu Better City
0
Draws
0
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Zall?
From 2 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 2, Wuhan Zall have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
They last met on 27 December 2022, when Chengdu Better City 3-1 Wuhan Zall.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Zall?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 56%, Wuhan Zall 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chengdu Better City) and 62% (Wuhan Zall). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Wuhan Zall in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Wuhan Zall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 38% of Wuhan Zall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 62% of Wuhan Zall's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Zall tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Wuhan Zall in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chengdu Better City cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Wuhan Zall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Wuhan Zall 3-1 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 2.35 xG and Wuhan Zall 0.70 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.18 / defence 0.69 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.74 / defence 1.39, drawn from 32/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 74% | Draw 18% | Wuhan Zall 9%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 74%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 38%, Wuhan Zall 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.