Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3-0 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hebei Zhongji encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hebei Zhongji make the trip to Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 to face Shijiazhuang Y. J. in Super League, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Tuesday 27 December 2022 at 07:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s overall Super League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 this season.
Hebei Zhongji have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 4.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 4.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Hebei Zhongji away from home this season: 0W 0D 10L from 10 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 3.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s 1.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Hebei Zhongji's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shijiazhuang Y. J. lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2022, ended 5–0 with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shijiazhuang Y. J. — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hebei Zhongji — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54% versus Hebei Zhongji 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46% | Hebei Zhongji 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.71 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.619 / defence 1.062 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.606 / defence 1.920. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.360. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack strength of 0.619 is below the league average — the 1.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hebei Zhongji bring a strong defensive rating of 1.920 — this is suppressing Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 46 Hebei Zhongji games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 56% | Draw 26% | Hebei Zhongji 18%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Hebei Zhongji 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Shijiazhuang Y. J. (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40% | Hebei Zhongji 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Dec 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 56% | Draw 26% | Hebei Zhongji 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.71 / Hebei Zhongji 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.619 / def 1.062 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.606 / def 1.920 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Hebei Zhongji xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 07:00 on Tuesday 27 December 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hebei Zhongji?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3 - 0 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hebei Zhongji is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 56% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hebei Zhongji will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hebei Zhongji?
Record (1 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W | Draws 0 | Hebei Zhongji 0W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hebei Zhongji in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 4.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 0.62x the league average against Hebei Zhongji's defence at 1.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hebei Zhongji's attack (0.61x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
56%
1.78
26%
3.92
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.58
0.88
Hebei Zhongji xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
3%
30.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.3 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 0.88 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hebei Zhongji?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shijiazhuang Y. J. come into this having played 54 games, going 15W 17D 22L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Hebei Zhongji sit at 0.57 PPG from 54 outings (8W 7D 39L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home form reads 7W 11D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Hebei Zhongji have taken 0.33 points per game from 27 outings (2W 3D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shijiazhuang Y. J. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.61 scored and 2.52 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
Hebei Zhongji
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 15W 17D 22L in their last 54 games (1.15 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 8W 7D 39L in their last 54 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.19 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
0
Draws
0
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hebei Zhongji?
From 2 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
They last met on 27 December 2022, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3-0 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hebei Zhongji?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 41%, Hebei Zhongji 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 63% (Hebei Zhongji).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 41% of games; Hebei Zhongji in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Hebei Zhongji?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 41% of Hebei Zhongji's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hebei Zhongji usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 63% of Hebei Zhongji's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hebei Zhongji tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hebei Zhongji in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shijiazhuang Y. J. run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Hebei Zhongji 3-0 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2, Regular Season - 33, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.71 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.88 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hebei Zhongji landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.62 / defence 1.06 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.61 / defence 1.92, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 56% | Draw 26% | Hebei Zhongji 18%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46%, Hebei Zhongji 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shijiazhuang Y. J. arrived the stronger side — 1.15 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.