Changchun Yatai 0-0 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Changchun Yatai welcome Yunnan Yukun to Development Area Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 April 2025 at 08:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Changchun Yatai have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Changchun Yatai's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Development Area Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Development Area Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Development Area Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.89 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.871 / defence 0.979 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.928 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.754 / away 1.522. Yunnan Yukun bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Changchun Yatai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Changchun Yatai games / 7 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 48% | Draw 25% | Yunnan Yukun 27%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Yunnan Yukun 3.70. Changchun Yatai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Changchun Yatai at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Development Area Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Apr 2025, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 48% | Draw 25% | Yunnan Yukun 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.89 / Yunnan Yukun 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.871 / def 0.979 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.928 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.754 / away 1.522 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Yunnan Yukun xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 20 April 2025 at Development Area Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Yunnan Yukun?
Changchun Yatai 0 - 0 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Development Area Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 48% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Yunnan Yukun?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Yunnan Yukun in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Changchun Yatai home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 0.87x the league average against Yunnan Yukun's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Yunnan Yukun's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
48%
2.08
25%
3.99
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
3.27
1.38
Yunnan Yukun xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
15%
6.62
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
4%
24.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.38 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Yunnan Yukun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Pre-Season
Yunnan Yukun
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 30 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Changchun Yatai
2
Draws
0
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Yunnan Yukun?
From 2 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 0, Yunnan Yukun have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2025, when Yunnan Yukun 1-1 Changchun Yatai.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Changchun Yatai's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Changchun Yatai and Yunnan Yukun drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.89 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.38 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Changchun Yatai fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Yunnan Yukun landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.87 / defence 0.98 against Yunnan Yukun attack 0.93 / defence 1.24, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 48% | Draw 25% | Yunnan Yukun 27%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.