Changchun Yatai 1-3 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Changchun Yatai face SHANGHAI SIPG.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Development Area Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Friday 18 July 2025 at 09:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Changchun Yatai have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai at Development Area Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Development Area Stadium than their overall form suggests.
SHANGHAI SIPG's overall Super League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, SHANGHAI SIPG are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 9 meetings, SHANGHAI SIPG have the stronger historical record — 7 wins to Changchun Yatai's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2025, ended 0–2 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Changchun Yatai — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
SHANGHAI SIPG — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Changchun Yatai 61% and SHANGHAI SIPG 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Changchun Yatai 65% | SHANGHAI SIPG 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.06 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.735 / defence 0.967 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.408 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.309. Changchun Yatai's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack strength of 1.408 — the away xG of 1.78 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Changchun Yatai games / 46 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 22% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 54%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.85. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 60% | SHANGHAI SIPG 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Development Area Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Jul 2025, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 22% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.06 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.735 / def 0.967 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.408 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.78
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 09:30 on Friday 18 July 2025 at Development Area Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Development Area Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 22% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (9 meetings): Changchun Yatai 1W | Draws 1 | SHANGHAI SIPG 7W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Changchun Yatai's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (1.41x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
22%
4.45
23%
4.30
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.84
1.78
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
4.45
22%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
17%
5.94
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
4%
26.44
19%
5.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.78 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 46 games, going 10W 10D 26L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SHANGHAI SIPG sit at 2.43 PPG from 46 outings (35W 7D 4L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.56 PPG clear of Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 7W 6D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, SHANGHAI SIPG have taken 2.36 points per game from 22 outings (16W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.87 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 10W 10D 26L in their last 46 games (0.87 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 35W 7D 4L in their last 46 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.23 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.36 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 July 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-0 on 31 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
8
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 1, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 59%, SHANGHAI SIPG 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Changchun Yatai and 73% for SHANGHAI SIPG. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; SHANGHAI SIPG in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Changchun Yatai's games and 54% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Changchun Yatai's matches and 73% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Changchun Yatai 1-3 at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.06 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.78 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 1.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.73 / defence 0.97 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.41 / defence 0.87, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 22% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 54%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 65%, SHANGHAI SIPG 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.