Changchun Yatai 0-0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC meet at Changchun's People Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 5 October 2022 at 08:30 UTC.
Form
Changchun Yatai (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Changchun's People Stadium, Changchun Yatai have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Changchun Yatai's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Changchun Yatai 0W, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2022, ended 0–2 with Guangzhou Evergrande FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Changchun Yatai half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Guangzhou Evergrande FC half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 58% versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 52% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.54 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.891 / defence 0.795 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.599 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.289. Guangzhou Evergrande FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing Changchun Yatai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Changchun Yatai's defence rating of 0.795 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 32 Changchun Yatai games / 32 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 59% | Draw 27% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 14%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Changchun Yatai (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Changchun Yatai at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 60% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 Oct 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 59% | Draw 27% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 37% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.54 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.891 / def 0.795 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.599 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
37%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 08:30 on Wednesday 5 October 2022 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Changchun Yatai 0 - 0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 59% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Record (2 meetings): Changchun Yatai 0W | Draws 0 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (0.89) and Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack (0.60x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
59%
1.69
27%
3.68
14%
7.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.16
0.61
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
7.25
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
32%
3.13
3%
33.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 11.0 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 0.61 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Changchun Yatai have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 17W 13D 10L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's form line: 16W 7D 17L from 40 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 1.38 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Changchun Yatai have posted 1.70 PPG from 20 outings (9W 7D 4L).
On the road, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 6W 2D 12L from 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou Evergrande FC are on 1.45 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 17W 13D 10L in their last 40 games (1.60 PPG), while Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 16W 7D 17L in their last 40 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Guangzhou Evergrande FC away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.70 PPG; Guangzhou Evergrande FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Guangzhou Evergrande FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Changchun Yatai won 1-4 on 27 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guangzhou Evergrande FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
2
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 December 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-4 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 50%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Changchun Yatai) and 45% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 35% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 45% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Changchun Yatai's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC finished level at 0-0 at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.54 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.61 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Changchun Yatai fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.89 / defence 0.80 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.60 / defence 1.27, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 59% | Draw 27% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 14%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 59%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 52%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.60 PPG, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.