York United 3-2 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Valour fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Valour make the trip to York Lions Stadium to face York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 July 2025 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
York United have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at York Lions Stadium, York United have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at York Lions Stadium.
Valour's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valour away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in York United's favour (1.20 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — York United lead 3W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Valour winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
York United half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — York United 62% and Valour 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 58% | Valour 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.95 xG and Valour 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.896 / defence 0.781 | Valour attack 0.787 / defence 1.439. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.338. Valour bring a strong defensive rating of 1.439 — this is suppressing York United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. York United's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 York United games / 40 Valour games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 63% | Draw 23% | Valour 14%. Fair-value odds: York United 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Valour 7.14. The model has a clear lean to York United (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates York United as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: York United 40% | Valour 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Jul 2025, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 63% | Draw 23% | Valour 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG York United 1.95 / Valour 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.896 / def 0.781 | Valour attack 0.787 / def 1.439 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: York United (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
York United xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Valour xG
49%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Valour kick off?
York United vs Valour kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 13 July 2025 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Valour?
York United 3 - 2 Valour.
Where is York United vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Valour part of?
York United vs Valour is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives York United a 63% chance of winning, Valour a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both York United and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Valour?
Record (7 meetings): York United 3W | Draws 1 | Valour 3W.
What form are York United and Valour in?
York United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Valour (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from York United's attack rating (0.90) and Valour's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valour's attack (0.79x) against York United's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
63%
1.60
23%
4.27
14%
7.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
York United xG
Total xG
2.77
0.82
Valour xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
7.19
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
14%
7.02
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
2%
50.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are York United and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for York United and 0.82 for Valour, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Valour?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
York United come into this having played 40 games, going 15W 10D 15L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valour sit at 0.90 PPG from 40 outings (9W 9D 22L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Valour — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
York United's home form reads 9W 5D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Valour have taken 0.63 points per game from 19 outings (2W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, York United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
York United are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.02 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Valour in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Valour in coming into this match?
York United have gone 15W 10D 15L in their last 40 games (1.38 PPG), while Valour have gone 9W 9D 22L in their last 40 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Valour away?
York United's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.68 PPG; Valour away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
York United
2
Draws
3
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 5, Valour have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did York United and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when York United 1-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between York United and Valour?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 58%, Valour 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (York United) and 63% (Valour). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: York United keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Valour in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Valour?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of York United's games and 68% of Valour's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is York United vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of York United's matches and 63% of Valour's.
Do York United and Valour tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Valour in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as York United edge out Valour 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Valour 3-2 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.95 xG and Valour 0.82 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. York United beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Valour outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.90 / defence 0.78 against Valour attack 0.79 / defence 1.44, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 63% | Draw 23% | Valour 14%, with York United to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 58%, Valour 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Valour's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, York United arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. York United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valour (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.