York United 1-1 Supra du Quebec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Supra du Quebec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Supra du Quebec make the trip to York Lions Stadium to face York United in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
York United (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York United's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at York Lions Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — York United are significantly better at York Lions Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Supra du Quebec's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Supra du Quebec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Supra du Quebec's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 4L across 8 road games this term (1.25 PPG). They are averaging 1.88 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for York United against 0.80 for Supra du Quebec. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — York United register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Supra du Quebec in 88%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: York United 0W, Supra du Quebec 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Supra du Quebec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
York United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
Supra du Quebec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — York United 76% and Supra du Quebec 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 59% | Supra du Quebec 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 2.10 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 1.011 / defence 0.997 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 28 York United games / 0 Supra du Quebec games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: York United 60% | Draw 23% | Supra du Quebec 17%. Fair-value odds: York United 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Supra du Quebec 5.88. The model has a clear lean to York United (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is York United at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: York United 80% | Supra du Quebec 88% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Supra du Quebec | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 60% | Draw 23% | Supra du Quebec 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG York United 2.10 / Supra du Quebec 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 1.011 / def 0.997 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: York United (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Supra du Quebec xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Supra du Quebec kick off?
York United vs Supra du Quebec kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Supra du Quebec?
York United 1 - 1 Supra du Quebec.
Where is York United vs Supra du Quebec being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Supra du Quebec part of?
York United vs Supra du Quebec is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Supra du Quebec?
Our statistical model gives York United a 60% chance of winning, Supra du Quebec a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Supra du Quebec?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both York United and Supra du Quebec will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Supra du Quebec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Supra du Quebec?
Record (1 meetings): York United 0W | Draws 0 | Supra du Quebec 1W.
What form are York United and Supra du Quebec in?
York United (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 3.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Supra du Quebec (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates York United's attack at 1.01x the league average against Supra du Quebec's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Supra du Quebec's attack (0.85x) against York United's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 28/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
60%
1.68
23%
4.27
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
York United xG
Total xG
3.18
1.07
Supra du Quebec xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
12%
8.21
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
2%
48.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Supra du Quebec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are York United and Supra du Quebec expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for York United and 1.07 for Supra du Quebec, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Supra du Quebec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
York United's recent record stands at 4W 6D 7L from 17 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Supra du Quebec, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 9L across 17 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Supra du Quebec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for York United against 1.06 for Supra du Quebec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, York United have managed 3W 1D 3L from 7 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Supra du Quebec's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, York United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
York United are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Supra du Quebec are on 1.47 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Supra du Quebec in 82%.
Last 17 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Supra du Quebec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Supra du Quebec in coming into this match?
York United have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Supra du Quebec have gone 5W 3D 9L in their last 17 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Supra du Quebec away?
York United's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.43 PPG; Supra du Quebec away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
York United
1
Draws
1
Supra du Quebec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Supra du Quebec?
From 2 meetings on record, York United have won 0, Supra du Quebec have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did York United and Supra du Quebec last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when York United 1-1 Supra du Quebec.
Who has won more matches between York United and Supra du Quebec?
Supra du Quebec have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Supra du Quebec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for York United, 86% for Supra du Quebec — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for York United and 71% for Supra du Quebec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 86% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Supra du Quebec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Supra du Quebec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of York United's games and 86% of Supra du Quebec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is York United vs Supra du Quebec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of York United's matches and 71% of Supra du Quebec's.
Do York United and Supra du Quebec tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Supra du Quebec in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
York United and Supra du Quebec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at York Lions Stadium, Group Stage, as York United and Supra du Quebec drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 2.10 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.07 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. York United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against Supra du Quebec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 28/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 60% | Draw 23% | Supra du Quebec 17%, with York United to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 59%, Supra du Quebec 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Supra du Quebec's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.06 PPG, Supra du Quebec 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. York United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.57 average — tighter than their form line. Supra du Quebec (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.