York United 0-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this York United vs Cavalry FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to York Lions Stadium to face York United in Canadian Premier League (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
York United (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, York United have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Cavalry FC have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cavalry FC are 1.00 PPG clear of York United over their recent games (2.20 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
York United — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Cavalry FC — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 51% versus Cavalry FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 55% | Cavalry FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 0.98 xG and Cavalry FC 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.824 / defence 1.385 | Cavalry FC attack 1.081 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.393. York United's defence rating of 1.385 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cavalry FC's projected output up. Data: built from York United's last 53 games and Cavalry FC's last 53.
Result probabilities: York United 16% | Draw 22% | Cavalry FC 62%. Fair-value odds: York United 6.23 | Draw 4.51 | Cavalry FC 1.62. The model has a clear lean to Cavalry FC (62%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (York United's last 10 home games and Cavalry FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: York United 50% (last 10 home games) | Cavalry FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 11 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 16% | Draw 22% | Cavalry FC 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG York United 0.98 / Cavalry FC 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.824 / def 1.385 | Cavalry FC attack 1.081 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
York United xG
Expected Goals
2.08
Cavalry FC xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ York United vs Cavalry FC FAQs
What time does York United vs Cavalry FC kick off?
York United vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Cavalry FC?
York United 0 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is York United vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Cavalry FC part of?
York United vs Cavalry FC is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 11) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives York United a 16% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 62% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both York United and Cavalry FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will York United vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates York United's attack at 0.82x the league average against Cavalry FC's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.08x) against York United's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 2.08.
These ratings are built from York United's last 53 games and Cavalry FC's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
16%
6.23
22%
4.51
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
York United xG
Total xG
3.07
2.08
Cavalry FC xG
6.23
16%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
12%
8.04
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
2%
50.15
23%
4.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.7 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ York United vs Cavalry FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are York United and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for York United and 2.08 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Cavalry FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
York United come into this having played 53 games, going 18W 12D 23L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Cavalry FC sit at 1.75 PPG from 53 outings (27W 12D 14L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Cavalry FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of York United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
York United's home form reads 8W 5D 13L across their last 26 home games, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Cavalry FC have taken 1.35 points per game from their last 26 away games (9W 8D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
York United are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.49 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
York United (Home) vs Cavalry FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
York United
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ York United vs Cavalry FC Form FAQs
What form are York United and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
York United have gone 18W 12D 23L in their last 53 games (1.25 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 27W 12D 14L in their last 53 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.12 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.35 PPG.
Have York United or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 3 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won Cavalry FC 5-0 York United on 2 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 2W 0D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
York United
1
Draws
6
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ York United vs Cavalry FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Cavalry FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, York United have won 3, Cavalry FC have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did York United and Cavalry FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 October 2026: York United 3-1 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between York United and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 46%, Cavalry FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (York United) and 54% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: York United have failed to score in 42% of games; Cavalry FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ York United vs Cavalry FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in York United and Cavalry FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of York United's recent matches and 58% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are York United and Cavalry FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of York United's recent games and 54% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Cavalry FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of York United's recent matches and 77% of Cavalry FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out York United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat York United 0-1 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 0.98 xG and Cavalry FC 2.08 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. York United fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Cavalry FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.82 / defence 1.39 against Cavalry FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.93, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 16% | Draw 22% | Cavalry FC 62%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 55%, Cavalry FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.