York United 1-0 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as York United face Atlético Ottawa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atlético Ottawa make the trip to York Lions Stadium to face York United in Canadian Premier League (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Sunday 1 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
York United (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, York United have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Atlético Ottawa's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atlético Ottawa's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for York United against 1.20 for Atlético Ottawa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
York United — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Atlético Ottawa — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 50% versus Atlético Ottawa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 54% | Atlético Ottawa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.08 xG and Atlético Ottawa 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.753 / defence 1.309 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.124 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.381. York United's attack rating of 0.753 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. York United's defence rating of 1.309 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Atlético Ottawa's projected output up. Data: built from York United's last 54 games and Atlético Ottawa's last 54.
Result probabilities: York United 19% | Draw 21% | Atlético Ottawa 59%. Fair-value odds: York United 5.16 | Draw 4.68 | Atlético Ottawa 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Atlético Ottawa (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atlético Ottawa are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (York United's last 10 home games and Atlético Ottawa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: York United 50% (last 10 home games) | Atlético Ottawa 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 12 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 19% | Draw 21% | Atlético Ottawa 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG York United 1.08 / Atlético Ottawa 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.753 / def 1.309 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.124 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
York United xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Atlético Ottawa xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ York United vs Atlético Ottawa FAQs
What time does York United vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
York United vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 1 October 2023 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
York United 1 - 0 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is York United vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
York United vs Atlético Ottawa is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 12) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives York United a 19% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 59% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both York United and Atlético Ottawa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will York United vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from York United's attack rating (0.75) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.12x) against York United's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 2.03.
These ratings are built from York United's last 54 games and Atlético Ottawa's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
19%
5.16
21%
4.68
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
York United xG
Total xG
3.11
2.03
Atlético Ottawa xG
5.16
19%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
13%
7.63
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
3%
39.39
20%
4.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ York United vs Atlético Ottawa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are York United and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for York United and 2.03 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
York United come into this having played 54 games, going 18W 12D 24L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Atlético Ottawa sit at 1.48 PPG from 54 outings (21W 17D 16L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for York United against 1.48 for Atlético Ottawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
York United's home form reads 8W 5D 14L across their last 27 home games, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Atlético Ottawa have taken 1.67 points per game from their last 27 away games (13W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atlético Ottawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
York United are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.35 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
York United (Home) vs Atlético Ottawa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
York United
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
❓ York United vs Atlético Ottawa Form FAQs
What form are York United and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
York United have gone 18W 12D 24L in their last 54 games (1.22 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 21W 17D 16L in their last 54 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Atlético Ottawa's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.07 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.67 PPG.
Have York United or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between York United and Atlético Ottawa, the earliest from October 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: York United won York United 4-1 Atlético Ottawa on 1 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
York United
5
Draws
2
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ York United vs Atlético Ottawa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Atlético Ottawa?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, York United have won 3, Atlético Ottawa have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did York United and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: York United 2-1 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between York United and Atlético Ottawa?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 44%, Atlético Ottawa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (York United) and 48% (Atlético Ottawa).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa in 33%; York United have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ York United vs Atlético Ottawa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in York United and Atlético Ottawa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of York United's recent matches and 52% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are York United and Atlético Ottawa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of York United's recent games and 48% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Atlético Ottawa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of York United's recent matches and 70% of Atlético Ottawa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as York United defy the odds to beat Atlético Ottawa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Atlético Ottawa 1-0 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.08 xG and Atlético Ottawa 2.03 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atlético Ottawa landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.75 / defence 1.31 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.12 / defence 1.10, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 19% | Draw 21% | Atlético Ottawa 59%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a York United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 54%, Atlético Ottawa 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.22 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.