York United 0-3 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this York United vs Atlético Ottawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atlético Ottawa make the trip to York Lions Stadium to face York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 July 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
York United (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at York Lions Stadium, York United have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Atlético Ottawa's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Atlético Ottawa are 1.30 PPG clear of York United in recent Canadian Premier League fixtures (1.90 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
York United — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Atlético Ottawa — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 51% versus Atlético Ottawa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (York United 42% | Atlético Ottawa 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 0.76 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.789 / defence 1.108 | Atlético Ottawa attack 0.959 / defence 0.702. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.283. York United's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Atlético Ottawa's defence strength of 0.702 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 York United games / 43 Atlético Ottawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 21% | Draw 28% | Atlético Ottawa 51%. Fair-value odds: York United 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | Atlético Ottawa 1.96. Atlético Ottawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atlético Ottawa are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: York United 40% | Atlético Ottawa 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jul 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 21% | Draw 28% | Atlético Ottawa 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 39% | xG York United 0.76 / Atlético Ottawa 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.789 / def 1.108 | Atlético Ottawa attack 0.959 / def 0.702 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Atlético Ottawa xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
York United vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 24 July 2022 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
York United 0 - 3 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is York United vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
York United vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives York United a 21% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both York United and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Atlético Ottawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Atlético Ottawa in?
York United (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from York United's attack rating (0.79) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 0.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (0.96x) against York United's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
21%
4.82
28%
3.58
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
York United xG
Total xG
2.12
1.36
Atlético Ottawa xG
4.82
21%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
5%
18.83
24%
4.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 16.4 | 11.2 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are York United and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for York United and 1.36 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
York United come into this having played 43 games, going 11W 16D 16L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atlético Ottawa sit at 1.21 PPG from 43 outings (13W 13D 17L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for York United against 1.21 for Atlético Ottawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
York United's home form reads 5W 8D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Atlético Ottawa have taken 1.24 points per game from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
York United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.07 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
York United have gone 11W 16D 16L in their last 43 games (1.14 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 13W 13D 17L in their last 43 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Atlético Ottawa's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.10 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: York United won 4-1 on 27 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
York United
5
Draws
1
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 4, Atlético Ottawa have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did York United and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and Atlético Ottawa?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
York United see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Atlético Ottawa see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 48%, Atlético Ottawa 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for York United and 33% for Atlético Ottawa.
On the defensive side: York United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; York United have failed to score in 33% of games; Atlético Ottawa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Atlético Ottawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of York United's recent matches and 48% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of York United's recent games and 33% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Atlético Ottawa run riot with a 0-3 hammering of York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat York United 0-3 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 0.76 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.36 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.79 / defence 1.11 against Atlético Ottawa attack 0.96 / defence 0.70, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 21% | Draw 28% | Atlético Ottawa 51%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 42%, Atlético Ottawa 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.14 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.