Valour 0-0 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates York United at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valour vs York United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Princess Auto Stadium plays host to Valour versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 17 August 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Valour's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valour at Princess Auto Stadium this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
York United (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York United's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
York United arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Valour register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, York United in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Valour 3W, York United 4W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jul 2025, ended 2–3 with York United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Valour — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
York United — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valour 63% and York United 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 61% | York United 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.17 xG and York United 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.924 / defence 1.238 | York United attack 1.032 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.287. Data: 46 Valour games / 46 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 25% | Draw 28% | York United 46%. Fair-value odds: Valour 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | York United 2.17. York United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is York United at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on York United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Valour 70% | York United 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Princess Auto Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Aug 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 25% | Draw 28% | York United 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Valour 1.17 / York United 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.924 / def 1.238 | York United attack 1.032 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: York United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.64
York United xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs York United kick off?
Valour vs York United kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 17 August 2025 at Princess Auto Stadium.
What was the final score in Valour vs York United?
Valour 0 - 0 York United.
Where is Valour vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Princess Auto Stadium.
What competition is Valour vs York United part of?
Valour vs York United is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 25% chance of winning, York United a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs York United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Valour and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and York United?
Record (8 meetings): Valour 3W | Draws 1 | York United 4W.
What form are Valour and York United in?
Valour (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. York United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Valour's attack at 0.92x the league average against York United's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — York United's attack (1.03x) against Valour's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
25%
3.96
28%
3.53
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Valour xG
Total xG
2.82
1.64
York United xG
3.96
25%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
5%
20.51
14%
6.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Valour and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Valour and 1.64 for York United, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valour come into this having played 46 games, going 11W 9D 26L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, York United sit at 1.48 PPG from 46 outings (19W 11D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Valour — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Valour's home form reads 8W 3D 12L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, York United have taken 1.17 points per game from 23 outings (7W 6D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valour are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.43 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valour have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and York United in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 11W 9D 26L in their last 46 games (0.91 PPG), while York United have gone 19W 11D 16L in their last 46 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or York United away?
Valour's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.17 PPG; York United away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Valour or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, York United in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valour
2
Draws
5
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 3, York United have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and York United last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when York United 1-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 56%, York United 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Valour) and 56% (York United).
On the defensive side: Valour have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play York United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Valour's games and 61% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valour vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Valour's recent games and 56% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and York United tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, York United in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valour's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour and York United finished level at 0-0 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.17 xG and York United 1.64 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valour fell 1.2 short of their projected output. York United landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.92 / defence 1.24 against York United attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 25% | Draw 28% | York United 46%, with York United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 61%, York United 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
York United's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, York United arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.