Supra du Quebec vs York United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Supra du Quebec at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Supra du Quebec vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Supra du Quebec and York United meet at in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 October 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
Supra du Quebec's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Supra du Quebec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Supra du Quebec have posted 3W 2D 5L at — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
York United have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, York United have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Supra du Quebec register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, York United in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Supra du Quebec lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Supra du Quebec — key trading statistics (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
York United — key trading statistics (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Supra du Quebec 79% and York United 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Supra du Quebec 58% | York United 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Supra du Quebec 1.53 xG and York United 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | York United attack 0.986 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 0 Supra du Quebec games / 28 York United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 38% | Draw 28% | York United 34%. Fair-value odds: Supra du Quebec 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | York United 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Supra du Quebec as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Supra du Quebec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Supra du Quebec 70% | York United 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Supra du Quebec vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 38% | Draw 28% | York United 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Supra du Quebec 1.53 / York United 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | York United attack 0.986 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Supra du Quebec (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Supra du Quebec xG
Expected Goals
1.44
York United xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Supra du Quebec vs York United kick off?
Supra du Quebec vs York United is scheduled to kick off at 23:00 on Friday 16 October 2026.
What competition is Supra du Quebec vs York United part of?
Supra du Quebec vs York United is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Supra du Quebec vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Supra du Quebec a 38% chance of winning, York United a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Supra du Quebec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Supra du Quebec vs York United?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Supra du Quebec and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Supra du Quebec vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and York United?
Record (2 meetings): Supra du Quebec 1W | Draws 1 | York United 0W.
What form are Supra du Quebec and York United in?
Supra du Quebec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. York United (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Supra du Quebec's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against York United's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — York United's attack (0.99x) against Supra du Quebec's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 0/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Supra du Quebec Win
38%
2.62
28%
3.57
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Supra du Quebec xG
Total xG
2.97
1.44
York United xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
9%
11.04
7%
13.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Supra du Quebec vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Supra du Quebec and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Supra du Quebec and 1.44 for York United, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Supra du Quebec vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Supra du Quebec come into this having played 19 games, going 6W 4D 9L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Supra du Quebec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, York United sit at 1.00 PPG from 19 outings (4W 7D 8L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Supra du Quebec against 1.00 for York United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Supra du Quebec's home form reads 3W 2D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, York United have taken 0.80 points per game from 10 outings (1W 5D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Supra du Quebec are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.26 scored and 2.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Supra du Quebec have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games; York United in 79%.
Last 19 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Supra du Quebec
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Supra du Quebec and York United in coming into this match?
Supra du Quebec have gone 6W 4D 9L in their last 19 games (1.16 PPG), while York United have gone 4W 7D 8L in their last 19 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Supra du Quebec at home or York United away?
Supra du Quebec's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Supra du Quebec at home: 1.10 PPG; York United away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Supra du Quebec
1
Draws
0
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and York United?
From 2 meetings on record, Supra du Quebec have won 1, York United have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Supra du Quebec and York United last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when York United 1-1 Supra du Quebec.
Who has won more matches between Supra du Quebec and York United?
Supra du Quebec have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Supra du Quebec see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Supra du Quebec, 70% for York United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Supra du Quebec) and 40% (York United).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Supra du Quebec home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Supra du Quebec play York United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Supra du Quebec's games and 70% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Supra du Quebec vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Supra du Quebec's recent games and 40% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Supra du Quebec and York United tend to score early?
Supra du Quebec have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, York United in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.