Pacific FC 3-0 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Vancouver FC travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024, 22:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Starlight Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Pacific FC are significantly better at Starlight Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Vancouver FC have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vancouver FC away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Pacific FC) versus 0.80 (Vancouver FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Pacific FC, 2 for Vancouver FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Vancouver FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Vancouver FC in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 46% versus Vancouver FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 44% | Vancouver FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.35 xG and Vancouver FC 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.818 / defence 1.039 | Vancouver FC attack 1.160 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.117. Data: 49 Pacific FC games / 50 Vancouver FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 36% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Vancouver FC 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Pacific FC 30% | Vancouver FC 70%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 36% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Pacific FC 1.35 / Vancouver FC 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.818 / def 1.039 | Vancouver FC attack 1.160 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Vancouver FC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Pacific FC 3 - 0 Vancouver FC.
Where is Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC part of?
Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 36% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Pacific FC and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Vancouver FC?
Record (2 meetings): Pacific FC 0W | Draws 0 | Vancouver FC 2W.
What form are Pacific FC and Vancouver FC in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Vancouver FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pacific FC's attack at 0.82x the league average against Vancouver FC's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vancouver FC's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
36%
2.76
28%
3.61
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.69
1.34
Vancouver FC xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
9%
10.60
9%
10.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.34 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pacific FC's recent record stands at 18W 11D 21L from 50 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vancouver FC, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 25L across 50 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 1.30 PPG, Vancouver FC on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pacific FC have managed 9W 6D 9L from 24 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vancouver FC's away record stands at 6W 4D 14L across 24 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pacific FC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 1.08 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 18W 11D 21L in their last 50 games (1.30 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 15W 10D 25L in their last 50 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Vancouver FC away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.38 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Vancouver FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Vancouver FC in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Pacific FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Vancouver FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pacific FC
4
Draws
4
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 2, Vancouver FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Vancouver FC 1-1 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Vancouver FC?
Vancouver FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 42%, Vancouver FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Pacific FC) and 62% (Vancouver FC).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pacific FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Vancouver FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Vancouver FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 58% of Vancouver FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Pacific FC's recent games and 62% of Vancouver FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and Vancouver FC tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Vancouver FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pacific FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Vancouver FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat Vancouver FC 3-0 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.35 xG and Vancouver FC 1.34 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Pacific FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vancouver FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.04 against Vancouver FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.12, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 36% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 36%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 44%, Vancouver FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.30 PPG, Vancouver FC 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.