Pacific FC 0-0 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pacific FC face Forge.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Forge make the trip to Starlight Stadium to face Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League (matchday 3). The match kicks off on Saturday 11 May 2024 at 23:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Pacific FC have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pacific FC at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Forge (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Forge away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Pacific FC, 1.80 for Forge — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Pacific FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Forge goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 52% versus Forge 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 48% | Forge 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Pacific FC surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Forge have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.20 xG and Forge 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.952 / defence 0.731 | Forge attack 1.277 / defence 0.778. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 0.960. Forge bring a tight defence (rating 0.778, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Pacific FC's projected output down. Forge have an above-average attack rating of 1.277, which lifts their away xG to 0.90. Pacific FC have a tight defence (rating 0.731), which is pulling Forge's projected output down. Data: built from Pacific FC's last 32 games and Forge's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 39% | Draw 37% | Forge 23%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.56 | Draw 2.67 | Forge 4.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacific FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pacific FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pacific FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Forge 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Pacific FC 32 games, Forge 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 3 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 23:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 39% | Draw 37% | Forge 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Pacific FC 1.20 / Forge 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.952 / def 0.731 | Forge attack 1.277 / def 0.778 | league avg home 1.623 / away 0.960 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Forge xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pacific FC vs Forge FAQs
What time does Pacific FC vs Forge kick off?
Pacific FC vs Forge kicked off at 23:00 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Forge?
Pacific FC 0 - 0 Forge.
Where is Pacific FC vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Forge part of?
Pacific FC vs Forge is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 3) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 39% chance of winning, Forge a 23% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Pacific FC and Forge will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Pacific FC vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (0.95) and Forge's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Forge's attack (1.28x) against Pacific FC's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from Pacific FC's last 32 games and Forge's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
39%
2.56
37%
2.67
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.10
0.90
Forge xG
2.56
39%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
7%
14.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 11.0 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pacific FC vs Forge Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Pacific FC and 0.90 for Forge, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pacific FC come into this having played 61 games, going 26W 15D 20L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Forge sit at 1.67 PPG from 61 outings (29W 15D 17L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Pacific FC against 1.67 for Forge. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pacific FC's home form reads 13W 9D 8L across their last 30 home games, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Forge have taken 1.70 points per game from their last 30 away games (15W 6D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Pacific FC are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.56 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
Forge
Current Season
Pacific FC (Home) vs Forge (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pacific FC
Current Season
Forge
Current Season
❓ Pacific FC vs Forge Form FAQs
What form are Pacific FC and Forge in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 26W 15D 20L in their last 61 games (1.52 PPG), while Forge have gone 29W 15D 17L in their last 61 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Forge away?
Forge's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.60 PPG; Forge away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Forge in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Pacific FC and Forge, the earliest from August 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Forge won Forge 4-0 Pacific FC on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacific FC have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Forge — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
1
Draws
8
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Pacific FC vs Forge H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Forge?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pacific FC have won 1, Forge have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Forge last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Pacific FC 1-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 57%, Forge 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Pacific FC) and 43% (Forge).
On the defensive side: Forge in 43%; Forge in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pacific FC vs Forge Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pacific FC and Forge matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 37% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pacific FC and Forge matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Pacific FC's recent games and 43% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and Forge matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 77% of Forge's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Pacific FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC and Forge finished level at 0-0 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.20 xG and Forge 0.90 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Pacific FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Forge landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.95 / defence 0.73 against Forge attack 1.28 / defence 0.78, drawn from 32/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 39% | Draw 37% | Forge 23%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 48%, Forge 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Forge's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.52 PPG, Forge 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Forge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.