Vancouver FC 1-1 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vancouver FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre plays host to Vancouver FC versus Atlético Ottawa in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Monday 13 May 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vancouver FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Vancouver FC at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Atlético Ottawa's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Vancouver FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vancouver FC 57% versus Atlético Ottawa 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 61% | Atlético Ottawa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 1.76 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 1.212 / defence 1.001 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.283 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 0.914. Atlético Ottawa have an above-average attack strength of 1.283 — the away xG of 1.17 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Vancouver FC games / 32 Atlético Ottawa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 48% | Draw 30% | Atlético Ottawa 22%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Atlético Ottawa 4.55. Vancouver FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vancouver FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vancouver FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vancouver FC 70% | Atlético Ottawa 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre • Kick-off: Monday 13 May 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 48% | Draw 30% | Atlético Ottawa 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Vancouver FC 1.76 / Atlético Ottawa 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 1.212 / def 1.001 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.283 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.565 / away 0.914 • Poisson stance: Vancouver FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Atlético Ottawa xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 13 May 2024 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Vancouver FC 1 - 1 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 48% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Vancouver FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa in?
Vancouver FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vancouver FC's attack rating (1.21) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.28x) against Vancouver FC's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vancouver FC Win
48%
2.09
30%
3.32
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
2.93
1.17
Atlético Ottawa xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
4%
26.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.17 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vancouver FC's recent record stands at 8W 5D 15L from 28 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Atlético Ottawa, meanwhile, have gone 10W 6D 12L across 28 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Vancouver FC against 1.29 for Atlético Ottawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vancouver FC have managed 5W 3D 6L from 14 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atlético Ottawa's away record stands at 5W 2D 7L across 14 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vancouver FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.36 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Current Season
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Vancouver FC have gone 8W 5D 15L in their last 28 games (1.04 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 10W 6D 12L in their last 28 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vancouver FC at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Vancouver FC's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vancouver FC at home: 1.29 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Vancouver FC or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vancouver FC have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Vancouver FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 0-3 on 13 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vancouver FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Vancouver FC
4
Draws
4
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Vancouver FC have won 2, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Vancouver FC 3-1 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vancouver FC 64%, Atlético Ottawa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Vancouver FC and 50% for Atlético Ottawa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vancouver FC play Atlético Ottawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Vancouver FC's games and 50% of Atlético Ottawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Vancouver FC's matches and 50% of Atlético Ottawa's.
Do Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Vancouver FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre, Regular Season - 3, as Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.76 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.17 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 1.21 / defence 1.00 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.28 / defence 0.93, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 48% | Draw 30% | Atlético Ottawa 22%, with Vancouver FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 61%, Atlético Ottawa 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vancouver FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vancouver FC 1.04 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.