HFX Wanderers FC 0-0 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as HFX Wanderers FC take on Pacific FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Pacific FC travel to Wanderers Grounds to take on HFX Wanderers FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 June 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, HFX Wanderers FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Wanderers Grounds, HFX Wanderers FC have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pacific FC away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: HFX Wanderers FC 1.40 PPG, Pacific FC 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. HFX Wanderers FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Pacific FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
HFX Wanderers FC in-play and half-time data (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Pacific FC in-play and half-time data (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — HFX Wanderers FC 47% versus Pacific FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (HFX Wanderers FC 47% | Pacific FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects HFX Wanderers FC 1.26 xG and Pacific FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.881 / defence 1.281 | Pacific FC attack 0.941 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 0.975. Data: 35 HFX Wanderers FC games / 36 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 34% | Draw 35% | Pacific FC 30%. Fair-value odds: HFX Wanderers FC 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Pacific FC 3.33. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: HFX Wanderers FC 60% | Pacific FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Wanderers Grounds • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jun 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 34% | Draw 35% | Pacific FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG HFX Wanderers FC 1.26 / Pacific FC 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.881 / def 1.281 | Pacific FC attack 0.941 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.600 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Pacific FC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC kick off?
HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 8 June 2024 at Wanderers Grounds.
What was the final score in HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC?
HFX Wanderers FC 0 - 0 Pacific FC.
Where is HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at Wanderers Grounds.
What competition is HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC part of?
HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives HFX Wanderers FC a 34% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC in?
HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Pacific FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates HFX Wanderers FC's attack at 0.88x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus HFX Wanderers FC's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
35%
2.84
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Total xG
2.43
1.18
Pacific FC xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
9%
11.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for HFX Wanderers FC and 1.18 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
HFX Wanderers FC come into this having played 57 games, going 19W 14D 24L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Pacific FC sit at 1.46 PPG from 57 outings (23W 14D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: HFX Wanderers FC on 1.25 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
HFX Wanderers FC's home form reads 14W 4D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Pacific FC have taken 1.52 points per game from 29 outings (13W 5D 11L).
The Goals Picture
HFX Wanderers FC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.32 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
HFX Wanderers FC
Current Season
Pacific FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
HFX Wanderers FC have gone 19W 14D 24L in their last 57 games (1.25 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 23W 14D 20L in their last 57 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — HFX Wanderers FC at home or Pacific FC away?
HFX Wanderers FC's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — HFX Wanderers FC at home: 1.59 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
HFX Wanderers FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Sep 2024, when Pacific FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
HFX Wanderers FC's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 3W 3D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
HFX Wanderers FC
4
Draws
2
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, HFX Wanderers FC have won 4, Pacific FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Pacific FC 1-2 HFX Wanderers FC.
Who has won more matches between HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC?
HFX Wanderers FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — HFX Wanderers FC 48%, Pacific FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (HFX Wanderers FC) and 52% (Pacific FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: HFX Wanderers FC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Pacific FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = HFX Wanderers FC home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when HFX Wanderers FC play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of HFX Wanderers FC's recent matches and 52% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is HFX Wanderers FC vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of HFX Wanderers FC's matches and 52% of Pacific FC's.
Do HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC tend to score early?
HFX Wanderers FC have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at HFX Wanderers FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
HFX Wanderers FC and Pacific FC finished level at 0-0 at Wanderers Grounds, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.26 xG and Pacific FC 1.18 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. HFX Wanderers FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Pacific FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.28 against Pacific FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.89, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 34% | Draw 35% | Pacific FC 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 47%, Pacific FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pacific FC's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — HFX Wanderers FC 1.25 PPG, Pacific FC 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.