HFX Wanderers FC 1-1 FC Edmonton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates HFX Wanderers FC at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wanderers Grounds plays host to HFX Wanderers FC versus FC Edmonton in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 23 July 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
HFX Wanderers FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for HFX Wanderers FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, HFX Wanderers FC have posted 3W 3D 4L at Wanderers Grounds — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Edmonton's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for HFX Wanderers FC, 0.70 for FC Edmonton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, HFX Wanderers FC are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jun 2022, ended 2–1 with HFX Wanderers FC winning.
The historical record gives HFX Wanderers FC a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
HFX Wanderers FC half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
FC Edmonton half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — HFX Wanderers FC 42% versus FC Edmonton 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (HFX Wanderers FC 46% | FC Edmonton 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects HFX Wanderers FC 1.74 xG and FC Edmonton 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.832 / defence 1.225 | FC Edmonton attack 0.884 / defence 1.542. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.301. FC Edmonton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.542 — this is suppressing HFX Wanderers FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 HFX Wanderers FC games / 44 FC Edmonton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 45% | Draw 23% | FC Edmonton 31%. Fair-value odds: HFX Wanderers FC 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | FC Edmonton 3.23. HFX Wanderers FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is HFX Wanderers FC at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on HFX Wanderers FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: HFX Wanderers FC 30% | FC Edmonton 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Wanderers Grounds • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jul 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 45% | Draw 23% | FC Edmonton 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG HFX Wanderers FC 1.74 / FC Edmonton 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.832 / def 1.225 | FC Edmonton attack 0.884 / def 1.542 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: HFX Wanderers FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Expected Goals
1.41
FC Edmonton xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton kick off?
HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 23 July 2022 at Wanderers Grounds.
What was the final score in HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton?
HFX Wanderers FC 1 - 1 FC Edmonton.
Where is HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton being played?
The match is being played at Wanderers Grounds.
What competition is HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton part of?
HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our statistical model gives HFX Wanderers FC a 45% chance of winning, FC Edmonton a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making HFX Wanderers FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton will score (BTTS).
Will HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton?
Record (5 meetings): HFX Wanderers FC 4W | Draws 0 | FC Edmonton 1W.
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton in?
HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
HFX Wanderers FC's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against FC Edmonton's defensive record (1.54x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — FC Edmonton's attack (0.88x) against HFX Wanderers FC's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
HFX Wanderers FC Win
45%
2.20
23%
4.29
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Total xG
3.15
1.41
FC Edmonton xG
2.20
45%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
6%
18.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for HFX Wanderers FC and 1.41 for FC Edmonton, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
HFX Wanderers FC come into this having played 43 games, going 13W 13D 17L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for HFX Wanderers FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Edmonton sit at 0.88 PPG from 43 outings (8W 14D 21L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for HFX Wanderers FC against 0.88 for FC Edmonton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
HFX Wanderers FC's home form reads 9W 5D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Edmonton have taken 0.50 points per game from 20 outings (1W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, HFX Wanderers FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
HFX Wanderers FC are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; FC Edmonton are on 1.21 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Edmonton in 65%.
Last 43 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
HFX Wanderers FC
Blended
FC Edmonton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton in coming into this match?
HFX Wanderers FC have gone 13W 13D 17L in their last 43 games (1.21 PPG), while FC Edmonton have gone 8W 14D 21L in their last 43 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — HFX Wanderers FC at home or FC Edmonton away?
HFX Wanderers FC's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — HFX Wanderers FC at home: 1.60 PPG; FC Edmonton away: 0.50 PPG.
Have HFX Wanderers FC or FC Edmonton been keeping clean sheets recently?
HFX Wanderers FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, FC Edmonton in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, HFX Wanderers FC have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
HFX Wanderers FC
1
Draws
2
FC Edmonton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton?
From 7 meetings on record, HFX Wanderers FC have won 4, FC Edmonton have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2022, when FC Edmonton 3-2 HFX Wanderers FC.
Who has won more matches between HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton?
HFX Wanderers FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — HFX Wanderers FC 45%, FC Edmonton 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (HFX Wanderers FC) and 60% (FC Edmonton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: HFX Wanderers FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; HFX Wanderers FC have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = HFX Wanderers FC home games / FC Edmonton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when HFX Wanderers FC play FC Edmonton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of HFX Wanderers FC's games and 70% of FC Edmonton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of HFX Wanderers FC's matches and 60% of FC Edmonton's.
Do HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton tend to score early?
HFX Wanderers FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Edmonton in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wanderers Grounds, Regular Season - 7, as HFX Wanderers FC and FC Edmonton drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.74 xG and FC Edmonton 1.41 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.23 against FC Edmonton attack 0.88 / defence 1.54, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 45% | Draw 23% | FC Edmonton 31%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 46%, FC Edmonton 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Edmonton's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — HFX Wanderers FC 1.21 PPG, FC Edmonton 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.