Cavalry FC 2-2 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs York United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cavalry FC have posted 8W 0D 2L at ATCO Field — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
York United's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, York United have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Cavalry FC's favour (2.20 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
York United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 58% versus York United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 58% | York United 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.73 xG and York United 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.033 / defence 0.881 | York United attack 0.976 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 0.969. Data: 33 Cavalry FC games / 33 York United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 55% | Draw 30% | York United 15%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 1.82 | Draw 3.33 | York United 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Cavalry FC (55%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Cavalry FC 50% | York United 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 55% | Draw 30% | York United 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Cavalry FC 1.73 / York United 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.033 / def 0.881 | York United attack 0.976 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.447 / away 0.969 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.83
York United xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs York United kick off?
Cavalry FC vs York United kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Cavalry FC 2 - 2 York United.
Where is Cavalry FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs York United part of?
Cavalry FC vs York United is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 55% chance of winning, York United a 15% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cavalry FC and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and York United in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. York United (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cavalry FC's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against York United's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — York United's attack (0.98x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
55%
1.81
30%
3.31
15%
6.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.56
0.83
York United xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
6.88
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
3%
38.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.1 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.83 for York United, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 30W 12D 15L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
York United's form line: 20W 12D 25L from 57 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against York United.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 2.10 PPG from 29 outings (19W 4D 6L).
On the road, York United have gone 11W 7D 11L from 29 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.16 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and York United in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 30W 12D 15L in their last 57 games (1.79 PPG), while York United have gone 20W 12D 25L in their last 57 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or York United away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.10 PPG; York United away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Cavalry FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 5-0 on 2 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Cavalry FC
1
Draws
2
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 7, York United have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and York United last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 5-0 York United.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and York United?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
York United see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 55%, York United 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Cavalry FC) and 55% (York United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; York United in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play York United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Cavalry FC's games and 55% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Cavalry FC's matches and 55% of York United's.
Do Cavalry FC and York United tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, York United in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cavalry FC and York United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC and York United finished level at 2-2 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.73 xG and York United 0.83 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. York United outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.88 against York United attack 0.98 / defence 1.16, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 55% | Draw 30% | York United 15%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 58%, York United 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
York United's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.