Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Bahia travel to Estádio São Januário to take on Vasco DA Gama. The game is scheduled for Thursday 12 February 2026, 00:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasco DA Gama stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Vasco DA Gama's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Estádio São Januário this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at Estádio São Januário than their overall form suggests.
Bahia — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bahia have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vasco DA Gama at 0.90 PPG versus Bahia's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vasco DA Gama register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bahia in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Vasco DA Gama, 3 for Bahia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Bahia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vasco DA Gama trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bahia trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 49% versus Bahia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 53% | Bahia 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.63 xG and Bahia 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.983 / defence 1.119 | Bahia attack 0.981 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.189. Data: 40 Vasco DA Gama games / 40 Bahia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 45% | Draw 25% | Bahia 31%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Bahia 3.23. Vasco DA Gama hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasco DA Gama at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vasco DA Gama 60% | Bahia 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Thursday 12 Feb 2026, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 45% | Draw 25% | Bahia 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.63 / Bahia 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.983 / def 1.119 | Bahia attack 0.981 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Bahia xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 12 February 2026 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia?
Vasco DA Gama 0 - 1 Bahia.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 45% chance of winning, Bahia a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Bahia?
Record (6 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 2W | Draws 1 | Bahia 3W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Bahia in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Bahia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vasco DA Gama's attack at 0.98x the league average against Bahia's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
45%
2.23
25%
4.06
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.93
1.30
Bahia xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
12%
8.23
6%
16.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.30 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 76 outings, Vasco DA Gama have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 27W 14D 35L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Bahia's form line: 32W 17D 27L from 76 games, 1.49 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasco DA Gama on 1.25 PPG, Bahia on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vasco DA Gama have posted 1.66 PPG from 38 outings (18W 9D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Vasco DA Gama are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bahia have gone 7W 11D 20L from 38 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasco DA Gama come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.30 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Bahia in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 27W 14D 35L in their last 76 games (1.25 PPG), while Bahia have gone 32W 17D 27L in their last 76 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Bahia away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.66 PPG; Bahia away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Vasco DA Gama or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasco DA Gama have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Bahia in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasco DA Gama and Bahia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Vasco DA Gama
2
Draws
4
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Bahia?
From 8 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, Bahia have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Bahia 0-0 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Bahia?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 53%, Bahia 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Vasco DA Gama) and 60% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 26% of games; Bahia in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play Bahia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Vasco DA Gama's games and 66% of Bahia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 60% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Bahia tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bahia in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bahia defy the odds to beat Vasco DA Gama 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Vasco DA Gama 0-1 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.63 xG and Bahia 1.30 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vasco DA Gama fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 0.98 / defence 1.12 against Bahia attack 0.98 / defence 1.02, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 45% | Draw 25% | Bahia 31%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Bahia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 53%, Bahia 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.25 PPG, Bahia 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Bahia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.