Palmeiras 3-1 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palmeiras (58%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Palmeiras face Juventude.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Juventude travel to Allianz Parque to take on Palmeiras in Serie A (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 June 2024 at 23:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Palmeiras have gone 7W 2D 1L — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Palmeiras at home: 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Juventude — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Juventude have posted 0W 0D 10L from their last 10 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Palmeiras are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 2.00 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Palmeiras's 10% BTTS rate and Juventude's 30% (from Palmeiras's last 10 home games and Juventude's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
Palmeiras hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Juventude and 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Sep 2022, ended Palmeiras 2–1 Juventude — a Palmeiras win.
The head-to-head data gives Palmeiras an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Palmeiras in-play tendencies (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Juventude in-play tendencies (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 83%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 45% versus Juventude 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 47% | Juventude 50%). Note also that Juventude surrender HT leads in 83% of cases while Palmeiras recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.70 xG and Juventude 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 0.982 / defence 0.854 | Juventude attack 0.836 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.099. Juventude's defence rating of 1.334 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Palmeiras's projected output up. Data: built from Palmeiras's last 48 games and Juventude's last 9.
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 58% | Draw 25% | Juventude 16%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.71 | Draw 3.94 | Juventude 6.14. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (58%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Palmeiras 10% (last 10 home games) | Juventude 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, matchday 11 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 23 June 2024 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 58% | Draw 25% | Juventude 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Palmeiras 1.70 / Juventude 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 0.982 / def 0.854 | Juventude attack 0.836 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Juventude xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Palmeiras vs Juventude FAQs
What time does Palmeiras vs Juventude kick off?
Palmeiras vs Juventude kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Sunday 23 June 2024 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Juventude?
Palmeiras 3 - 1 Juventude.
Where is Palmeiras vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Juventude part of?
Palmeiras vs Juventude is a Serie A fixture (matchday 11) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 58% chance of winning, Juventude a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Palmeiras and Juventude will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Palmeiras vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 0.98x the league average against Juventude's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventude's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Palmeiras's last 48 games and Juventude's last 9 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.6%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
58%
1.71
25%
3.94
16%
6.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.48
0.78
Juventude xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
6.14
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
3%
33.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.1 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Palmeiras vs Juventude Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.78 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Juventude?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palmeiras come into this having played 38 games, going 20W 10D 8L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Juventude sit at 0.58 PPG from 38 outings (3W 13D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.26 PPG clear of Juventude — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Palmeiras's home form reads 14W 2D 3L across their last 19 home games, a 2.32 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.84 PPG overall — Palmeiras are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Juventude have taken 0.37 points per game from their last 19 away games (1W 4D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palmeiras are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.76 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Juventude
Pre-Season
Palmeiras (Home) vs Juventude (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Palmeiras
Current Season
Juventude
Pre-Season
❓ Palmeiras vs Juventude Form FAQs
What form are Palmeiras and Juventude in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 20W 10D 8L in their last 38 games (1.84 PPG), while Juventude have gone 3W 13D 22L in their last 38 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Juventude away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.32 PPG; Juventude away: 0.37 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Juventude been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Juventude in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from June 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 2 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won each of the latest 6 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Jun 2021, when Palmeiras won Juventude 0-3 Palmeiras.
Palmeiras's record when hosting Juventude specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Palmeiras
1
Draws
0
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Palmeiras vs Juventude H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Juventude?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Palmeiras have won 7, Juventude have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Juventude last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2025: Juventude 0-2 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Juventude?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 42%, Juventude 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Palmeiras) and 53% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Juventude in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Palmeiras vs Juventude Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Palmeiras and Juventude matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 47% of Juventude's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Palmeiras and Juventude matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Palmeiras's recent games and 53% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Juventude matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 74% of Juventude's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Juventude.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Juventude 3-1 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.70 xG and Juventude 0.78 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Palmeiras beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 0.98 / defence 0.85 against Juventude attack 0.84 / defence 1.33, drawn from 48/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 58% | Draw 25% | Juventude 16%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 47%, Juventude 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.