Juventude 2-0 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Juventude at 44%, yet in-form Vasco DA Gama provide a compelling counter-argument — this Juventude vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 10 as Juventude welcome Vasco DA Gama to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi. Kick-off is set for Thursday 20 June 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventude have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Juventude haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Juventude's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Juventude are significantly better at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasco DA Gama stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Vasco DA Gama have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Vasco DA Gama are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Juventude in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Vasco DA Gama in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 55% versus Vasco DA Gama 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 50% | Vasco DA Gama 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.24 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.892 / defence 0.929 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.777 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.173. Data: 8 Juventude games / 47 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 44% | Draw 33% | Vasco DA Gama 23%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Vasco DA Gama 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventude are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasco DA Gama (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventude offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Juventude 70% | Vasco DA Gama 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Thursday 20 Jun 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 44% | Draw 33% | Vasco DA Gama 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Juventude 1.24 / Vasco DA Gama 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.892 / def 0.929 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.777 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Juventude (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Vasco DA Gama xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Juventude vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 20 June 2024 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Vasco DA Gama?
Juventude 2 - 0 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Juventude vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Juventude vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 44% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Juventude and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Vasco DA Gama?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juventude and Vasco DA Gama in?
Juventude (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Juventude's attack at 0.89x the league average against Vasco DA Gama's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
44%
2.29
33%
3.03
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.09
0.85
Vasco DA Gama xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
7%
14.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 10.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.0 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Juventude and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Juventude and 0.85 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Juventude's recent record stands at 3W 13D 22L from 38 games, a 0.58 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. Juventude haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Vasco DA Gama, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 17L across 38 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-D-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vasco DA Gama by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Juventude heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Juventude have managed 2W 9D 8L from 19 games — 0.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasco DA Gama's away record stands at 3W 7D 9L across 19 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Juventude are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.08 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Pre-Season
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 3W 13D 22L in their last 38 games (0.58 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Vasco DA Gama's away record (0.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 0.79 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juventude and Vasco DA Gama runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Juventude have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Juventude's record when hosting Vasco DA Gama specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Juventude
1
Draws
0
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Vasco DA Gama?
From 4 meetings on record, Juventude have won 3, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Vasco DA Gama 1-3 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Vasco DA Gama?
Juventude have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Vasco DA Gama see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 63%, Vasco DA Gama 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Juventude) and 32% (Vasco DA Gama).
On the defensive side: Juventude have failed to score in 26% of games; Vasco DA Gama in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Vasco DA Gama?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Juventude's games and 58% of Vasco DA Gama's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juventude vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Juventude's recent games and 32% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventude cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Vasco DA Gama.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude beat Vasco DA Gama 2-0 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.24 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.85 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.89 / defence 0.93 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.78 / defence 1.12, drawn from 8/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 44% | Draw 33% | Vasco DA Gama 23%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 50%, Vasco DA Gama 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasco DA Gama arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.58. Form was overturned, with Juventude winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Juventude (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.