Mirassol 2-1 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Corinthians travel to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia to take on Mirassol. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 May 2025, 22:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Serie A games this season, Corinthians have recorded 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Corinthians away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 2.03 xG and Corinthians 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.179 / defence 1.311 | Corinthians attack 0.937 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 0.836. Corinthians bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Mirassol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Mirassol games / 45 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 60% | Draw 22% | Corinthians 18%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Corinthians 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Mirassol (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mirassol are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 60% | Draw 22% | Corinthians 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG Mirassol 2.03 / Corinthians 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.179 / def 1.311 | Corinthians attack 0.937 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.422 / away 0.836 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Corinthians xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Corinthians kick off?
Mirassol vs Corinthians kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Corinthians?
Mirassol 2 - 1 Corinthians.
Where is Mirassol vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Corinthians part of?
Mirassol vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 60% chance of winning, Corinthians a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Mirassol and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Corinthians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mirassol and Corinthians in?
Corinthians (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Corinthians away split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mirassol's attack at 1.18x the league average against Corinthians's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Corinthians's attack versus Mirassol's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.56
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Mirassol xG
Total xG
3.06
1.03
Corinthians xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
13%
7.63
Win to Nil
22%
4.64
2%
42.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.03 for Corinthians, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Corinthians?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Pre-Season
Corinthians
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Corinthians won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mirassol's record when hosting Corinthians specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Mirassol
0
Draws
1
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Corinthians?
From 3 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 2, Corinthians have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Mirassol 2-1 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Corinthians?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Mirassol edge out Corinthians 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Corinthians 2-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 2.03 xG and Corinthians 1.03 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.18 / defence 1.31 against Corinthians attack 0.94 / defence 1.21, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 60% | Draw 22% | Corinthians 18%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.