Fluminense 2-1 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 59%, yet in-form Coritiba provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fluminense vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fluminense host Coritiba at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fluminense stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Fluminense's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Coritiba have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Coritiba have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Coritiba are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Fluminense have won 1, Coritiba 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2023, ended 0–2 with Coritiba winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fluminense in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Coritiba in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 43% versus Coritiba 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 46% | Coritiba 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 2.41 xG and Coritiba 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.254 / defence 1.031 | Coritiba attack 1.254 / defence 1.459. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.110. Fluminense carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 2.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.459 — this is suppressing Fluminense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Coritiba have an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — the away xG of 1.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 72 Fluminense games / 72 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 59% | Draw 19% | Coritiba 22%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.69 | Draw 5.26 | Coritiba 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Fluminense (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.41 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fluminense at 59% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Coritiba (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 40% | Coritiba 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 59% | Draw 19% | Coritiba 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 69% | xG Fluminense 2.41 / Coritiba 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.254 / def 1.031 | Coritiba attack 1.254 / def 1.459 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Coritiba xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Coritiba kick off?
Fluminense vs Coritiba kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Coritiba?
Fluminense 2 - 1 Coritiba.
Where is Fluminense vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Coritiba part of?
Fluminense vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 59% chance of winning, Coritiba a 22% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Fluminense and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Coritiba?
Record (3 meetings): Fluminense 1W | Draws 0 | Coritiba 2W.
What form are Fluminense and Coritiba in?
Fluminense (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Coritiba (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fluminense's attack rating (1.25) and Coritiba's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 2.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
59%
1.69
19%
5.22
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Fluminense xG
Total xG
3.85
1.44
Coritiba xG
1.69
59%
Home win
5.22
19%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.27
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
9%
11.15
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
2%
50.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.44 for Coritiba, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Fluminense have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 35W 15D 22L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Coritiba's form line: 20W 11D 41L from 72 games, 0.99 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Fluminense are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Coritiba.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fluminense have posted 2.19 PPG from 36 outings (24W 7D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Coritiba have gone 5W 4D 27L from 36 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.99 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coritiba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fluminense are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.08 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Coritiba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 35W 15D 22L in their last 72 games (1.67 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 20W 11D 41L in their last 72 (0.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Coritiba away?
Fluminense's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.19 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Coritiba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Coritiba in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2022, when Fluminense won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fluminense's record when hosting Coritiba specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Fluminense
1
Draws
2
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Coritiba?
From 5 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 2, Coritiba have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Coritiba 1-1 Fluminense.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 50%, Coritiba 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Fluminense and 72% for Coritiba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Coritiba in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Coritiba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Fluminense's games and 67% of Coritiba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fluminense vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Fluminense's matches and 72% of Coritiba's.
Do Fluminense and Coritiba tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Coritiba 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Coritiba 2-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 2.41 xG and Coritiba 1.44 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.25 / defence 1.03 against Coritiba attack 1.25 / defence 1.46, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 59% | Draw 19% | Coritiba 22%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 46%, Coritiba 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Coritiba's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fluminense arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.99. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.