Atletico Paranaense 0-0 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atletico Paranaense face Vasco DA Gama.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Atletico Paranaense welcome Vasco DA Gama to Ligga Arena in Serie A (matchday 35). Kick-off is Saturday 25 November 2023 at 22:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Atletico Paranaense — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atletico Paranaense at home: 4W 6D 0L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Atletico Paranaense are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Vasco DA Gama stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Vasco DA Gama have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Atletico Paranaense) versus 1.50 (Vasco DA Gama). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Atletico Paranaense's games and 60% of Vasco DA Gama's (from Atletico Paranaense's last 10 home games and Vasco DA Gama's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Atletico Paranaense have won 1, Vasco DA Gama 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Jul 2023, ended Atletico Paranaense 2–0 Vasco DA Gama — a Atletico Paranaense win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Atletico Paranaense trading profile (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 94% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Vasco DA Gama trading profile (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 59% versus Vasco DA Gama 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atletico Paranaense 38% | Vasco DA Gama 35%). Note also that Vasco DA Gama surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Atletico Paranaense recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.78 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.159 / defence 1.087 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.893 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.117. Data: built from Atletico Paranaense's last 72 games and Vasco DA Gama's last 34.
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 54% | Draw 23% | Vasco DA Gama 23%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 1.86 | Draw 4.30 | Vasco DA Gama 4.35. Atletico Paranaense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Paranaense as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Atletico Paranaense's last 10 home games and Vasco DA Gama's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atletico Paranaense 80% (last 10 home games) | Vasco DA Gama 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, matchday 35 | Venue: Ligga Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 22:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 54% | Draw 23% | Vasco DA Gama 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.78 / Vasco DA Gama 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.159 / def 1.087 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.893 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Vasco DA Gama xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama FAQs
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 22:30 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Ligga Arena.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Atletico Paranaense 0 - 0 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Ligga Arena.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama is a Serie A fixture (matchday 35) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 54% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Atletico Paranaense's attack rating (1.16) and Vasco DA Gama's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus Atletico Paranaense's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atletico Paranaense's last 72 games and Vasco DA Gama's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
54%
1.86
23%
4.30
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.87
1.08
Vasco DA Gama xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
4%
25.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.08 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atletico Paranaense's recent record stands at 13W 12D 9L from 34 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Vasco DA Gama, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 15L across 34 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atletico Paranaense on 1.50 PPG, Vasco DA Gama on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atletico Paranaense have managed 9W 7D 1L from their last 17 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Atletico Paranaense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Vasco DA Gama's away record stands at 3W 6D 8L across their last 17 away games, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Paranaense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.09 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 34 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Atletico Paranaense (Home) vs Vasco DA Gama (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
❓ Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama Form FAQs
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 13W 12D 9L in their last 34 games (1.50 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 11W 8D 15L in their last 34 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 2.00 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from July 2023. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 4 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Vasco DA Gama have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Atletico Paranaense's record when hosting Vasco DA Gama specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Atletico Paranaense
1
Draws
3
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Atletico Paranaense have won 2, Vasco DA Gama have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 November 2026: Atletico Paranaense 1-3 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Vasco DA Gama see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Atletico Paranaense at 71%, Vasco DA Gama at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Atletico Paranaense) and 35% (Vasco DA Gama).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Atletico Paranaense's games and 65% of Vasco DA Gama's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 35% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 94% of Atletico Paranaense's recent matches and 59% of Vasco DA Gama's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atletico Paranaense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama finished level at 0-0 at Ligga Arena, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.78 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.08 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atletico Paranaense fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Vasco DA Gama landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 1.16 / defence 1.09 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.89 / defence 1.16, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 54% | Draw 23% | Vasco DA Gama 23%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 38%, Vasco DA Gama 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Paranaense 1.50 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.