Flamengo 2-1 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Mirassol travel to Estádio do Maracanã to take on Flamengo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 August 2025, 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Flamengo — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo at Estádio do Maracanã this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Maracanã. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Mirassol have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mirassol have gone 2W 4D 2L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.25 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Flamengo at 2.30 PPG versus Mirassol's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 69% of the time.
Mirassol trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 25% versus Mirassol 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 38% | Mirassol 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.52 xG and Mirassol 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.301 / defence 0.591 | Mirassol attack 1.067 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 0.952. Flamengo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.301 — their λ of 1.52 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Flamengo's defence rating of 0.591 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Flamengo games / 16 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 59% | Draw 27% | Mirassol 14%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Mirassol 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 20% | Mirassol 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Aug 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 59% | Draw 27% | Mirassol 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 36% | xG Flamengo 1.52 / Mirassol 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.301 / def 0.591 | Mirassol attack 1.067 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.282 / away 0.952 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Mirassol xG
36%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Mirassol kick off?
Flamengo vs Mirassol kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 9 August 2025 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Mirassol?
Flamengo 2 - 1 Mirassol.
Where is Flamengo vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Flamengo vs Mirassol part of?
Flamengo vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 59% chance of winning, Mirassol a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Flamengo and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Mirassol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Flamengo and Mirassol in?
Flamengo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Mirassol (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.30x the league average against Mirassol's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mirassol's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
59%
1.69
27%
3.74
14%
7.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.12
0.60
Mirassol xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
7.15
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
33%
3.08
3%
32.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 10.9 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.60 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Mirassol?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Flamengo's recent record stands at 11W 3D 2L from 16 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mirassol, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 2L across 16 games — 1.75 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mirassol heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 7W 1D 0L from 8 games — 2.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.25 PPG overall — Flamengo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mirassol's away record stands at 2W 4D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mirassol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Flamengo are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.38 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.69 scored and 1.00 conceded. Flamengo's scoring rate against Mirassol's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Flamengo have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Mirassol in 69%.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 69% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Mirassol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 11W 3D 2L in their last 16 games (2.25 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 7W 7D 2L in their last 16 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Mirassol away?
Flamengo's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.75 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Mirassol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 69% of their recent games, Mirassol in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Flamengo and Mirassol runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Flamengo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2026, when Flamengo won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Mirassol specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Flamengo
1
Draws
0
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Mirassol?
From 4 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 3, Mirassol have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when Flamengo 2-0 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Mirassol?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Flamengo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Flamengo 0% BTTS, Mirassol 62%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Flamengo and 25% for Mirassol.
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Mirassol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Flamengo's recent matches and 62% of Mirassol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Flamengo's recent games and 25% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Mirassol tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Mirassol 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Mirassol 2-1 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.52 xG and Mirassol 0.60 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.30 / defence 0.59 against Mirassol attack 1.07 / defence 0.91, drawn from 55/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 59% | Draw 27% | Mirassol 14%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 38%, Mirassol 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 69% of the time, and conceded here.
Mirassol's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.75. Form held, and they took the win. Flamengo (home/away splits) shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mirassol (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.