Flamengo 0-0 Atletico-MG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Atletico-MG encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Flamengo host Atletico-MG at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 13 November 2024 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Flamengo — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Flamengo's home record at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atletico-MG stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Atletico-MG have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Flamengo have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Flamengo register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Atletico-MG in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Flamengo have won 4, Atletico-MG 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2024, ended 4–2 with Flamengo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Atletico-MG trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 58% versus Atletico-MG 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 51% | Atletico-MG 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.60 xG and Atletico-MG 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.061 / defence 1.153 | Atletico-MG attack 1.003 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 0.995. Data: 70 Flamengo games / 69 Atletico-MG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 48% | Draw 25% | Atletico-MG 27%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Atletico-MG 3.70. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 70% | Atletico-MG 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 Nov 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 48% | Draw 25% | Atletico-MG 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Flamengo 1.60 / Atletico-MG 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.061 / def 1.153 | Atletico-MG attack 1.003 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.360 / away 0.995 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Atletico-MG xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 13 November 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Flamengo 0 - 0 Atletico-MG.
Where is Flamengo vs Atletico-MG being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Atletico-MG part of?
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 48% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Flamengo and Atletico-MG will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Atletico-MG?
Record (6 meetings): Flamengo 4W | Draws 0 | Atletico-MG 2W.
What form are Flamengo and Atletico-MG in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Atletico-MG (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.06x the league average against Atletico-MG's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico-MG's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
48%
2.09
25%
4.04
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.75
1.15
Atletico-MG xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
5%
18.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Flamengo and 1.15 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Flamengo's recent record stands at 35W 16D 18L from 69 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Atletico-MG, meanwhile, have gone 29W 20D 20L across 69 games — 1.55 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Flamengo on 1.75 PPG, Atletico-MG on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 19W 8D 7L from 34 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico-MG's away record stands at 12W 11D 11L across 34 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Atletico-MG are on 1.36 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Atletico-MG
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Atletico-MG in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 35W 16D 18L in their last 69 games (1.75 PPG), while Atletico-MG have gone 29W 20D 20L in their last 69 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Atletico-MG away?
Flamengo's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.91 PPG; Atletico-MG away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Atletico-MG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Atletico-MG in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2026, when Flamengo won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Atletico-MG specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Flamengo
2
Draws
2
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Atletico-MG?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 6, Atletico-MG have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Atletico-MG last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Atletico-MG 0-4 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Atletico-MG?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Atletico-MG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 53%, Atletico-MG 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Flamengo) and 47% (Atletico-MG).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Atletico-MG in 32%; Atletico-MG in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Atletico-MG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Flamengo's recent matches and 50% of Atletico-MG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Atletico-MG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Flamengo's recent games and 47% of Atletico-MG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Atletico-MG tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Atletico-MG in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Flamengo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo and Atletico-MG finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.60 xG and Atletico-MG 1.15 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Flamengo fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Atletico-MG landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.06 / defence 1.15 against Atletico-MG attack 1.00 / defence 1.11, drawn from 70/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 48% | Draw 25% | Atletico-MG 27%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 51%, Atletico-MG 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Atletico-MG's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.75 PPG, Atletico-MG 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.