Cuiaba 0-1 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Pantanal plays host to Cuiaba versus Corinthians in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Monday 28 October 2024 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cuiaba's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Cuiaba at Arena Pantanal this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Corinthians have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Corinthians away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Corinthians, who have claimed 4 wins from 7 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Corinthians have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Cuiaba half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Corinthians half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 35% versus Corinthians 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cuiaba 40% | Corinthians 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.19 xG and Corinthians 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.783 / defence 0.968 | Corinthians attack 0.793 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.003. Cuiaba's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 68 Cuiaba games / 68 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 46% | Draw 31% | Corinthians 24%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Corinthians 4.17. Cuiaba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cuiaba are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cuiaba if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 50% | Corinthians 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Monday 28 Oct 2024, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 46% | Draw 31% | Corinthians 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Cuiaba 1.19 / Corinthians 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.783 / def 0.968 | Corinthians attack 0.793 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.003 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Corinthians xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Corinthians kick off?
Cuiaba vs Corinthians kicked off at 22:00 on Monday 28 October 2024 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Corinthians?
Cuiaba 0 - 1 Corinthians.
Where is Cuiaba vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Corinthians part of?
Cuiaba vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 46% chance of winning, Corinthians a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Cuiaba and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Corinthians?
Record (7 meetings): Cuiaba 1W | Draws 2 | Corinthians 4W.
What form are Cuiaba and Corinthians in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Corinthians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Cuiaba vs Corinthians?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cuiaba's attack rating (0.78) and Corinthians's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Corinthians's attack (0.79x) against Cuiaba's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
46%
2.19
31%
3.24
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
1.96
0.77
Corinthians xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
7%
14.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 10.8 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.9 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.77 for Corinthians, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cuiaba's recent record stands at 20W 18D 30L from 68 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Corinthians, meanwhile, have gone 19W 25D 24L across 68 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Cuiaba against 1.21 for Corinthians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cuiaba have managed 9W 11D 14L from 34 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Corinthians's away record stands at 7W 7D 20L across 34 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Cuiaba are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.19 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
Corinthians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 20W 18D 30L in their last 68 games (1.15 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 19W 25D 24L in their last 68 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Corinthians away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.12 PPG; Corinthians away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Corinthians in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cuiaba have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Corinthians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cuiaba
2
Draws
5
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Corinthians?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 1, Corinthians have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2024, when Cuiaba 0-1 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Corinthians?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 38%, Corinthians 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cuiaba) and 38% (Corinthians).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cuiaba have failed to score in 44% of games; Corinthians in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Corinthians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 38% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cuiaba's recent games and 38% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Corinthians tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Corinthians in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Corinthians defy the odds to beat Cuiaba 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat Cuiaba 0-1 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.19 xG and Corinthians 0.77 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cuiaba fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.78 / defence 0.97 against Corinthians attack 0.79 / defence 1.10, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 46% | Draw 31% | Corinthians 24%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Corinthians win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 40%, Corinthians 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Corinthians's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.15 PPG, Corinthians 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Corinthians win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Corinthians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.