Cruzeiro 0-1 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cruzeiro vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Flamengo make the trip to Estádio Raimundo Sampaio to face Cruzeiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Thursday 7 November 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form
Cruzeiro (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cruzeiro's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Cruzeiro are significantly better at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Flamengo have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Flamengo are 0.60 PPG clear of Cruzeiro in recent Serie A fixtures (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cruzeiro lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2024, ended 1–2 with Flamengo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cruzeiro — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Flamengo — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cruzeiro 33% versus Flamengo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cruzeiro 35% | Flamengo 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.29 xG and Flamengo 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 0.942 / defence 0.863 | Flamengo attack 1.276 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.025. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.276 — the away xG of 1.13 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 69 Cruzeiro games / 69 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 40% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 32%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Flamengo 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cruzeiro are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Flamengo (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cruzeiro if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Cruzeiro 50% | Flamengo 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Nov 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 40% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Cruzeiro 1.29 / Flamengo 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 0.942 / def 0.863 | Flamengo attack 1.276 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Flamengo xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cruzeiro vs Flamengo kick off?
Cruzeiro vs Flamengo kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 7 November 2024 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
Cruzeiro 0 - 1 Flamengo.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs Flamengo part of?
Cruzeiro vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 40% chance of winning, Flamengo a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cruzeiro and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Cruzeiro vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Flamengo?
Record (3 meetings): Cruzeiro 0W | Draws 1 | Flamengo 2W.
What form are Cruzeiro and Flamengo in?
Cruzeiro (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Flamengo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cruzeiro's attack at 0.94x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.28x) against Cruzeiro's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
40%
2.50
28%
3.57
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
2.42
1.13
Flamengo xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
13%
7.74
9%
11.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 1.13 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cruzeiro's recent record stands at 23W 22D 24L from 69 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 35W 16D 18L across 69 games — 1.75 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cruzeiro heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cruzeiro have managed 13W 12D 9L from 34 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 15W 8D 11L across 34 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cruzeiro are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.54 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cruzeiro and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Cruzeiro have gone 23W 22D 24L in their last 69 games (1.32 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 35W 16D 18L in their last 69 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cruzeiro at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cruzeiro at home: 1.50 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Cruzeiro or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Flamengo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cruzeiro have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Cruzeiro
2
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Flamengo?
From 7 meetings on record, Cruzeiro have won 1, Flamengo have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2026, when Flamengo 2-0 Cruzeiro.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cruzeiro 44%, Flamengo 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Cruzeiro) and 59% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Cruzeiro have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cruzeiro play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cruzeiro's recent matches and 65% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cruzeiro vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cruzeiro's recent games and 59% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cruzeiro and Flamengo tend to score early?
Cruzeiro have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Flamengo defy the odds to beat Cruzeiro 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Cruzeiro 0-1 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.29 xG and Flamengo 1.13 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cruzeiro fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 0.94 / defence 0.86 against Flamengo attack 1.28 / defence 1.00, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 40% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 32%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Flamengo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 35%, Flamengo 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cruzeiro's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Flamengo's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.32. Form held, and they took the win. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Flamengo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.