Cruzeiro 1-1 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 52%, yet in-form Bahia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cruzeiro vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cruzeiro welcome Bahia to Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Serie A (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 19 October 2024 at 02:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cruzeiro have gone 1W 5D 4L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Cruzeiro have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Cruzeiro are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bahia — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Bahia have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bahia are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Cruzeiro have won 1, Bahia 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Jun 2024, ended Cruzeiro 1–4 Bahia — a Bahia win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cruzeiro trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Bahia trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cruzeiro 33% versus Bahia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cruzeiro 34% | Bahia 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.61 xG and Bahia 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 0.982 / defence 0.882 | Bahia attack 1.117 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 0.983. Bahia's defence rating of 1.211 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cruzeiro's projected output up. Data: built from Cruzeiro's last 67 games and Bahia's last 67.
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 52% | Draw 26% | Bahia 22%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 1.94 | Draw 3.81 | Bahia 4.52. Cruzeiro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cruzeiro as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bahia (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cruzeiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cruzeiro 40% (last 10 home games) | Bahia 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, matchday 30 | Venue: Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 02:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 52% | Draw 26% | Bahia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Cruzeiro 1.61 / Bahia 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 0.982 / def 0.882 | Bahia attack 1.117 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.351 / away 0.983 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Bahia xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cruzeiro vs Bahia FAQs
What time does Cruzeiro vs Bahia kick off?
Cruzeiro vs Bahia kicked off at 02:30 UK time on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
Cruzeiro 1 - 1 Bahia.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs Bahia part of?
Cruzeiro vs Bahia is a Serie A fixture (matchday 30) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 52% chance of winning, Bahia a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cruzeiro and Bahia will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Cruzeiro vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cruzeiro's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Bahia's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Cruzeiro's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cruzeiro's last 67 games and Bahia's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
52%
1.94
26%
3.81
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
2.58
0.97
Bahia xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
4%
22.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cruzeiro vs Bahia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 0.97 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Cruzeiro have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 23W 21D 23L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Bahia's form line: 25W 14D 28L from 67 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cruzeiro on 1.34 PPG, Bahia on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cruzeiro have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 33 home games (13W 11D 9L).
On the road, Bahia have gone 7W 7D 19L from their last 33 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cruzeiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cruzeiro are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.33 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
Cruzeiro (Home) vs Bahia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cruzeiro
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Cruzeiro vs Bahia Form FAQs
What form are Cruzeiro and Bahia in coming into this match?
Cruzeiro have gone 23W 21D 23L in their last 67 games (1.34 PPG), while Bahia have gone 25W 14D 28L in their last 67 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cruzeiro at home or Bahia away?
Cruzeiro's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cruzeiro at home: 1.52 PPG; Bahia away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Cruzeiro or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Bahia in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from June 2023. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 6 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Cruzeiro have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2023, when Cruzeiro won Cruzeiro 3-0 Bahia.
Cruzeiro's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Cruzeiro
2
Draws
1
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Cruzeiro vs Bahia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Bahia?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Cruzeiro have won 5, Bahia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and Bahia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 November 2026: Cruzeiro 3-2 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and Bahia?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cruzeiro 42%, Bahia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cruzeiro) and 54% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cruzeiro have failed to score in 36% of games; Bahia in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cruzeiro vs Bahia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cruzeiro and Bahia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cruzeiro's recent matches and 54% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cruzeiro and Bahia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cruzeiro's recent games and 54% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cruzeiro and Bahia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Cruzeiro's recent matches and 70% of Bahia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cruzeiro and Bahia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cruzeiro and Bahia finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.61 xG and Bahia 0.97 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 0.98 / defence 0.88 against Bahia attack 1.12 / defence 1.21, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 52% | Draw 26% | Bahia 22%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 34%, Bahia 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cruzeiro's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Bahia's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cruzeiro 1.34 PPG, Bahia 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.