Vasco DA Gama 3-2 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Bahia travel to Estádio São Januário to take on Vasco DA Gama. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 29 October 2024, 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasco DA Gama stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Vasco DA Gama's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Estádio São Januário this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at Estádio São Januário than their overall form suggests.
Bahia — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bahia have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vasco DA Gama at 1.60 PPG versus Bahia's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Vasco DA Gama, 2 for Bahia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2024, ended 1–2 with Bahia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vasco DA Gama trading profile (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bahia trading profile (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 50% versus Bahia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 40% | Bahia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.54 xG and Bahia 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.973 / defence 1.013 | Bahia attack 1.108 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.005. Data: 68 Vasco DA Gama games / 68 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 47% | Draw 25% | Bahia 28%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Bahia 3.57. Vasco DA Gama hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasco DA Gama at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vasco DA Gama 50% | Bahia 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Oct 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 47% | Draw 25% | Bahia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.54 / Bahia 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.973 / def 1.013 | Bahia attack 1.108 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Bahia xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 29 October 2024 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia?
Vasco DA Gama 3 - 2 Bahia.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 47% chance of winning, Bahia a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Bahia?
Record (3 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 0W | Draws 1 | Bahia 2W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Bahia in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Bahia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vasco DA Gama's attack at 0.97x the league average against Bahia's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
47%
2.14
25%
3.93
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.67
1.13
Bahia xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
6%
16.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.13 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 68 outings, Vasco DA Gama have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 23W 16D 29L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Bahia's form line: 25W 15D 28L from 68 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasco DA Gama on 1.25 PPG, Bahia on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vasco DA Gama have posted 1.68 PPG from 34 outings (17W 6D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Vasco DA Gama are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bahia have gone 7W 8D 19L from 34 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasco DA Gama come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.32 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Bahia in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 23W 16D 29L in their last 68 games (1.25 PPG), while Bahia have gone 25W 15D 28L in their last 68 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Bahia away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.68 PPG; Bahia away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasco DA Gama and Bahia runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bahia have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
4
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Bahia?
From 7 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, Bahia have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Bahia?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 47%, Bahia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Vasco DA Gama) and 53% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 26% of games; Bahia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 56% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 53% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Bahia tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bahia in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vasco DA Gama edge out Bahia 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Bahia 3-2 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.54 xG and Bahia 1.13 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bahia outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 0.97 / defence 1.01 against Bahia attack 1.11 / defence 1.15, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 47% | Draw 25% | Bahia 28%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 40%, Bahia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Bahia's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.25 PPG, Bahia 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm. Bahia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.