Chapecoense-sc 0-4 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Flamengo travel to to take on Chapecoense-sc. The game is scheduled for Thursday 23 July 2026, 01:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Chapecoense-sc — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chapecoense-sc's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 4L across 9 games at this term (0.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.78 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Chapecoense-sc are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Flamengo stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Flamengo are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chapecoense-sc register both teams scoring in 78% of relevant matches, Flamengo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Chapecoense-sc, 1 for Flamengo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Chapecoense-sc in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Flamengo in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chapecoense-sc 61% versus Flamengo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chapecoense-sc 44% | Flamengo 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 0.99 xG and Flamengo 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.843 / defence 1.563 | Flamengo attack 1.259 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.085. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — the away xG of 2.13 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 18 Chapecoense-sc games / 55 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 16% | Draw 20% | Flamengo 63%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 6.25 | Draw 5.00 | Flamengo 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Chapecoense-sc 78% | Flamengo 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Jul 2026, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 16% | Draw 20% | Flamengo 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 56% | xG Chapecoense-sc 0.99 / Flamengo 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.843 / def 1.563 | Flamengo attack 1.259 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (63%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
2.13
Flamengo xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 23 July 2026.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo?
Chapecoense-sc 0 - 4 Flamengo.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 16% chance of winning, Flamengo a 63% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Flamengo?
Record (2 meetings): Chapecoense-sc 0W | Draws 1 | Flamengo 1W.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Flamengo in?
Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Flamengo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chapecoense-sc's attack rating (0.84) and Flamengo's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Chapecoense-sc's defence, projects 2.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
16%
6.13
20%
4.90
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
3.12
2.13
Flamengo xG
6.13
16%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
12%
8.45
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
2%
51.77
23%
4.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 2.13 for Flamengo, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Chapecoense-sc have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 1W 6D 11L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo's form line: 10W 5D 3L from 18 games, 1.94 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 1.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chapecoense-sc.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chapecoense-sc have posted 0.78 PPG from 9 outings (1W 4D 4L).
On the road, Flamengo have gone 5W 2D 2L from 9 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chapecoense-sc are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.89 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chapecoense-sc have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Flamengo in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Chapecoense-sc have gone 1W 6D 11L in their last 18 games (0.50 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 10W 5D 3L in their last 18 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chapecoense-sc at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chapecoense-sc at home: 0.78 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Chapecoense-sc or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chapecoense-sc have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Flamengo in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 23 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jul 2026, when Flamengo won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chapecoense-sc's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
1
Draws
2
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Flamengo?
From 3 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Flamengo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 23 July 2026, when Chapecoense-sc 0-4 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chapecoense-sc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chapecoense-sc at 78%, Flamengo at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Chapecoense-sc and 67% for Flamengo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Flamengo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chapecoense-sc play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Chapecoense-sc's games and 56% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Chapecoense-sc's matches and 67% of Flamengo's.
Do Chapecoense-sc and Flamengo tend to score early?
Chapecoense-sc have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Chapecoense-sc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Chapecoense-sc 0-4 at , Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 0.99 xG and Flamengo 2.13 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Chapecoense-sc fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Flamengo outscored their 2.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 0.84 / defence 1.56 against Flamengo attack 1.26 / defence 0.81, drawn from 18/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 16% | Draw 20% | Flamengo 63%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chapecoense-sc 44%, Flamengo 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Flamengo's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Chapecoense-sc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.