Ceara 1-3 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ceara vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ceara and Palmeiras meet at Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ceara's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Ceara at Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Ceara are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Palmeiras (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Palmeiras's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Palmeiras, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Palmeiras winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Palmeiras have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Ceara — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 38% versus Palmeiras 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ceara 27% | Palmeiras 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.01 xG and Palmeiras 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.745 / defence 1.032 | Palmeiras attack 1.350 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.028. Ceara's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — the away xG of 1.43 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Ceara games / 75 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 27% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 47%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Palmeiras 2.13. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Ceara 50% | Palmeiras 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 27% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Ceara 1.01 / Palmeiras 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.745 / def 1.032 | Palmeiras attack 1.350 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.028 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Palmeiras xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Palmeiras kick off?
Ceara vs Palmeiras kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Palmeiras?
Ceara 1 - 3 Palmeiras.
Where is Ceara vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Palmeiras part of?
Ceara vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 27% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ceara and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Palmeiras?
Record (5 meetings): Ceara 1W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 4W.
What form are Ceara and Palmeiras in?
Ceara (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ceara's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Palmeiras's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.35x) against Ceara's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 37/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
27%
3.76
27%
3.76
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Ceara xG
Total xG
2.44
1.43
Palmeiras xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
6%
15.77
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ceara and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Ceara and 1.43 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ceara come into this having played 37 games, going 11W 10D 16L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Palmeiras sit at 1.97 PPG from 37 outings (22W 7D 8L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Ceara — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Ceara's home form reads 7W 5D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Palmeiras have taken 1.78 points per game from 18 outings (10W 2D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ceara are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.70 scored and 0.86 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 11W 10D 16L in their last 37 games (1.16 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 22W 7D 8L in their last 37 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 1.44 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Ceara or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Palmeiras have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ceara have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ceara
0
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Palmeiras?
From 6 meetings on record, Ceara have won 1, Palmeiras have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Ceara 1-3 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ceara 39%, Palmeiras 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Ceara) and 61% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Ceara keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ceara have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Ceara's recent matches and 61% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ceara vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Ceara's recent games and 61% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ceara and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Ceara have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ceara.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Ceara 1-3 at Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.01 xG and Palmeiras 1.43 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Palmeiras outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.74 / defence 1.03 against Palmeiras attack 1.35 / defence 0.90, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 27% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 47%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 27%, Palmeiras 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Palmeiras's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Ceara (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.